FP: 俄烏危機給我們應對中國的啟示


作者/Author(s): Zachary Shore 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 06/01/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy


Zachary Shore 在他的書《A Sense of the Enemy》中使用pattern-break analysis模式,分析來探索重大和意外事件如何揭示不可告人的動機,然後將其用於了解戰略對手。大多數成功的領導者都關注敵人行為的異常,以尋找對手動機的線索。

  • 中國正在將其經濟與西方可能發生的制裁脫鉤,這代表著中國有可能會做出吞併台灣或引發西方懲罰的其他侵略行為 
  • Zongyuan Zoe Liu 認為中國的經濟掛勾作為一種防禦措施。美國應該質疑其作為中國侵略預兆的可能性  
  • 偏離SOP和慣例,可能是行為者的預期行動,但對其他國家來說不是。其他傾向於西方的國家沒有這些針對美國的防禦措施,因為他們不會做出引發美國制裁的事情。 
  • 中國並未直接受到西方對俄制裁的影響,但中國企業卻主動撤資俄羅斯,這對中國企業造成了很大的損失 
  • 中國領導人在了解各國對俄羅斯的聯合制裁後,需要重新考慮吞併台灣是否值得。儘管北約和歐盟存在裂痕,中國領導人對民主和發達經濟體團結一致反對俄羅斯感到驚訝。儘管中國可以承擔美國制裁新疆勞教和鎮壓香港的後果,但入侵台灣的後果可能代價太高。
  • 雖然中國的貨幣暫時是安全的,但它仍然面臨著被全球經濟孤立的可能性。  

Shore used pattern-break analysis in his book A Sense of the Enemy to explore how major and unexpected events reveal ulterior motives, then apply it to understand strategic opponents. Most successful leaders focused on abnormalities in enemy behaviors for hints of their adversaries' motives.  
  • China is insulating its economy against possible Western sanctions, hinting at a possibility of Taiwan annexation or other aggressions that will trigger punishments from the West. Liu (FP: China Is Hardening Itself for Economic War) places China's economic inoculation as a defensive measure. The US should question its possibility as a premonition of Chinese aggression. 
  • A deviation from SOPs and routines, may be expected by the actor but not for the rest. Other Western-leaning countries do not have these defensive measures against the US because they will not act in ways to trigger a sanction. 
  • China is not directly affected by Western sanctions on Russia, but Chinese corporations voluntarily withdrew from Russia, burdening losses.  
  • Chinese leaders need to reconsider whether annexation of Taiwan is worthwhile after observing concerted punishment of Russia. Chinese leaders are astonished by the solidarity among democratic and advanced economies against Russia, despite cracks in NATO and EU. Although China can shoulder the aftermath of US sanctions for Xinjiang labor camps and the Hong Kong crackdown, but the consequences of Taiwan invasion may be too costly. 
  • Although China's currency is safe for now, it still faces the possibility of global economic isolation.  

If a rival changes its behavior, it is essential to examine the change around significant events to understand their next step and motives.