編輯器

FP：中國正在為經濟戰做準備 

 

作者/Author(s): Zongyuan Zoe Liu 

作者所屬機構/Affiliation: Fellow for international political economy, CFR 

原文來源/Source: 《外交政策》 Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 06/16/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic 

 

摘要:

 

如果美國計劃利用《Indo-Pacific Economic Framework》（IPEF）(印太經濟架構 https://reurl.cc/Wr2Xy7 )來對付中國，中國可以利用其自給自足戰略來增強其經濟韌性。 

 

中國的自給自足戰略: 

  • 建立一個獨立的、自力更生的國家統一市場 
  • 一個以人民幣為基礎的全球能源交易商品系統 
  • 推廣使用跨境銀行支付系統。 

破壞全球供應鏈:

  • 中國通過執行《出口管制法》(ECL)（Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China- https://reurl.cc/7D13Wk）來限制中國的市場准入和限制稀土出口，從而擾亂全球供應鏈。 
  • 中國還利用其在北京控制的港口影響力，限制外國人進入供應鏈。

這些策略對中國的好處：

  • 減少中國被制裁後受到的負面影響 。
  • 降低其他國家對中國進行經濟脅迫的意願。
  • 在緊張局勢加劇的情況下抵消美國的地緣經濟力量。 

美國從中能做的:

  • 探索這些措施的風險和漏洞。 
  • 仔細評估中國的能力。
  • 關注需要發展支持的國家。

Summary: 

China can enhance its economic resilience if the US plans to use the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) against it through self-reliance strategies and disrupting global supply chain. 

 

Self-reliant strategies: 

  • Building an independent and self-reliant national unified market.
  • Building a Yuan-based global commodities systems for energy transactions.
  • Promoting the usage of Cross-Border Interbank Payment System.

Disrupting global supply chain: 

  • China can also disrupt global supply chains by enforcing its  Export Control Law (ECL) to limit China's market access and restrict rare earth exports.
  • China also use its leverage in Beijing- controlled ports to restrict foreigners' access to supply chains. 

Pros of these strategies to China: 

  • Allow China to curtail the effect of sanctions. 
  • Reduce the willingness of economic coercion against China. 
  • Neutralize US's geoeconomic power in case of heightened tension.

What the US can do: 

  • Explore the risks and loopholes for these strategies.
  • Carefully assess Chinese capabilities. 
  • Bolster the attractiveness of the US's leadership.
  • Pay attention to countries that need development support.
回上層