作者/Author(s): Mike Studeman 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 04/17/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、戰略 

摘要：

專家對於中國入侵台灣的可能性多年來意見分歧，雖然習近平沒有明確訂立明確的侵台時程，但眼下中國內部經濟和外交關係不穩定，解放軍也持續現代化，以應對未來可能發生的衝突。另一觀點則認為，習近平可能會在其權力達到巔峰且下滑前入侵台灣。 

  • 習近平將統一台灣定為自己的政治神話和北京政府的核心利益。 
  • 在中共二十大上，習近平任命有涉台經驗的官員進入政治局，形成類似戰爭內閣。 
  • 中國還在加快解放軍的擴編和現代化進程，發展至關重要的全新非常規作戰能力，同時積累核武庫。習近平正慢慢地將軍隊靠向台灣，頻繁舉行演習，減少台灣的預警時間，恐嚇台灣人。 
  • 習近平還修訂了中國法律，以便更快地動員平民、資產和物資，儲備戰略資產，加強能源安全。 
  • 在習近平的備戰原則中，安全優先於經濟，他試圖讓中國的經濟和財政免受外部威脅，促進自給自足，研究西方制裁的套路，以減緩和承受外國制裁可能帶來的衝擊。 
  • 然而，習近平在實現其台灣統一神話方面面臨著幾個挑戰。 
  1. 習近平的年紀可能無法讓他見證兩岸統一進程以及中國在全球舞台上的復甦。 
  2. 鑑於目前國內的不利條件和國際社會的看法，習近平可能會遵循中國傳統的 「擇善固執」的說法，等待時機成熟後再推進台灣問題。
  3. 俄羅斯在俄烏問題上缺乏進展，可能會阻止習近平魯莽地入侵台灣。

 

Summary: 

Experts are still divided over the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Although Xi did not enact an apparent deadline for invasion, he is militarizing China for possible future conflicts amid an unstable domestic economy and foreign relations. The contrasting opinion states that Xi would invade Taiwan as his power is peaking and may decline soon. Nevertheless, Xi's behavior jeopardizes the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. 

  • Xi set unification with Taiwan as his legacy and a core interest of the Beijing government. 
  • In the 20th CCP Congress, Xi appointed officials with Taiwan-related experience into the Politburo, making it similar to a war cabinet. 
  • China is also hastening the expansion and modernization of the PLA. China is also developing new and crucial non-conventional warfighting capabilities and amassing its nuclear arsenals. Xi also slowly moves his forces closer to Taiwan and conducts frequent exercises to reduce Taiwan's warning time and intimidate the Taiwanese. 
  • Xi also revised China's legislation to allow faster mobilization of civilians, assets, and supplies, stockpile strategic assets, and bolster energy security. 
  • Xi's prioritization of security over the economy is the most significant in his war preparations. Xi tried to insulate the Chinese economy and finances from external threats, promote self-sufficiency, and study the Western sanctions playbook to reduce and endure the shocks from possible foreign repercussions. 
  • However, Xi faces several challenges in realizing his Taiwan unification legacy. ​​​​​​​
  1. Xi's age may not permit him to see through the whole progress and the recovery of China on the global stage. 
  2. Xi may follow the traditional Chinese saying of advance only when all conditions are favorable. Given the current negative domestic conditions and international views, Xi may wait until the correct time before advancing on Taiwan. 
  3. Russia's lack of progress in the Russo-Ukraine may deter Xi from invading Taiwan recklessly.
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