作者/Author(s): David Kearn 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 03/14/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 核武、防禦、嚇阻 

摘要:

美國過去曾在歐洲部署核武器，以嚇阻蘇聯和華沙公約組織。美國可能會在台海與核大國中國發生衝突。鑑於當前嚴峻的戰略環境，有人呼籲美國使用有限核戰爭，但這可能是被人批評過度反應，招致全球反彈。 

  • 雖然台灣海峽的軍事平衡有利於中國，但美國沒有必要使用核武器。美國的常規平台、台灣的防禦系統和反制措施可以在入侵者試圖穿越海峽時，大幅削弱其戰鬥能力。 
  • 率先威脅使用核武器並不能顯著提高美國對中國的嚇阻力。而且美國的核武器嚇阻也不可信，因為台灣不是美國的正式防務盟友，此舉也不符合美國的國家利益。 
  • 如果美國對解放軍部隊使用核武器，可以有效摧毀其部隊並阻止入侵。然而，中國可能會報復攻擊美國航母戰鬥群或西太平洋前線基地。   
  • 首次使用核武器可能會讓盟國感到不安，因為他們無法預測核衝突的代價，而且也可能升高西太平洋衝突情勢。
  • 最後，利用核武威脅解放軍，或實際首次使用核武器將損害美國的外交聲譽。美國未來可能還需要更多地依賴核升級。 
     
Summary: 
The US deployed nuclear weapons in Europe as a deterrent against the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact in the past. The US may face a Taiwan Strait conflict against China, a rising nuclear power. There had been calls for the US to use limited nuclear war due to the current challenging strategic environment, but it may be an overreaction and may invite global backlash. 
  • Although the military balance favors China in the Taiwan Strait, it is unnecessary to use nuclear weapons. The US conventional platforms, Taiwan's defense systems, and countermeasures could significantly erode the invaders as they try to cross the strait. 
  • Threatening the first use of nuclear weapons will not significantly improve the US deterrence against China. Further, the US threat of nuclear weapons is not credible because Taiwan is not a formal defense ally and does not align with the US national interest. 
  • If the US used a nuclear strike on the PLA forces, it may decimate its forces and stop the invasion. However, China may retaliate by attacking US carrier groups or forward bases in the Western Pacific.  
  • The first use of nuclear weapons may unease allies because they cannot predict the cost of a nuclear conflict and may provoke further conflicts in the region. 
  • Lastly, the threat or actual first use of nuclear weapons against the PLA would damage the US diplomatic reputation. The US may also need to rely more on nuclear escalation in the future. 
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