作者/Author(s): Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 06/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事 


摘要：
中國海軍火力可能在2027年超過美國 
  • 美國在艦載垂直發射系統（VLS）系統總數量上占據主導地位，支援艦艇發射各種彈藥，這代表美國可以在一次齊射中發射比解放軍海軍更多的飛彈。然而，中國正在迅速追趕，並可能在2027年超越美國。
  • 美國應該增加配備VLS的艦艇，在關鍵地區投資自主地面發射器、飛機和無人系統，解決VLS系統相關技術問題，投資現代化和高精度的遠程飛彈。 
美國過於依賴航空母艦 
  • 專家們不僅使用艦艇數量作為衡量標準，也會參考排水量。排水量大的艦艇可以航行得更遠，運輸更多武器和後勤支援系統。 
  • 美國擁有更多的航空母艦和兩棲攻擊艦，因此在艦艇排水量方面優於中國。但如果航空母艦和兩棲攻擊艦不再適合美國的海軍行動，美國的排水量優勢將消失，目前趨勢顯示中國可能在十年內超越美國。 
  • 美國可以透過維持海軍空中力量、飛彈支援艦隊以及改進航空母艦戰略等作法來保持優勢。
美國的潛艇優勢 
  • 美國潛艇的能力毋庸置疑，因為它擁有大量優越攻擊能力的核動力潛艇。
  • 雖然中國計畫生產配備VLS系統的潛艇，但不太可能趕上美國。美國在潛艇生產方面擁有巨大的領先優勢，而且中國的反潛作戰能力落後於其水面作戰能力。 
  • 水下艦艇能力可以左右雙方衝突的戰局，美國應積極保持優勢。
雖然這些趨勢不代表解放軍海軍能夠擊敗美國或超越美國的海軍主導地位，但對美國而言情勢也絕不樂觀。華盛頓應該止住頹勢，維護美軍海上優勢與太平洋的和平。 

Summary: 
China may overtake US Navy Firepower by 2027 
  • The US still retains dominance in the total number of vertical launch systems (VLS) cells, which are the advanced missile launchers that allow ships to fire various projectiles, meaning the US can fire more missiles than the PLAN in a salvo. However, China is catching up quickly and may surpass the US by 2027. 
  • The US should increase its VLS-equipped ships, invest in autonomous ground-based launchers, aircrafts, and unmanned systems in critical areas, resolve technical problems associated with VLS systems, and invest in modern and high-quality long-range missiles. 
The US relied Too Much on Aircraft Carriers ​​​​​​​
  • Experts not only use the number of ships as a metric, but they also use displacement. Ships with higher displacement could travel further and transport more weapons and support systems. 
  • The US still has the edge over China in ship displacement, but it was because the US possess more aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships. However, if aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships are not suitable for US naval operations, the US displacement advantage would disappear and current trends suggest China could surpass the US within ten years. 
  • Yet, the US could remain dominant by maintaining its naval airpower, supporting the fleet with missiles, and evolving its carrier doctrine. 
US Submarine Supremacy 
  • The US submarine capabilities are undisputable due to its number of nuclear power submarines with superior attack capacities. 
  • Although China is planning to produce its own submarines with VLS cells, it is unlikely China could catch up to the US because the US had a large lead in submarine production. Further, China's anti-submarine warfare capabilities fall behind its surface warfare capabilities. 
  • Therefore, the US should maintain its advantage in subsurface vessels as they would be decisive in a conflict with China. 
Although the trends do not suggest the PLA Navy could defeat the US or overtake the US Naval dominance, the trends seem ominous for the US. The US should stop its decline to preserve its maritime dominance and maintain peace in the Pacific. 
回上層