作者/Author(s): Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 06/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事 

摘要：

隨著解放軍海軍快速擴張和現代化，中國可能很快會超越美國海軍的主導地位，在長期大國戰爭中戰勝美國，削弱美國在印太地區的盟友。雖然美國對中國仍有一定優勢，但美國必須振興經濟和造船業，阻止美國海軍的衰落。 

中國的數量優勢 

  • 中國現在擁有世界上最大的海軍戰隊，艦艇數量比美國多出15艘。即使算上戰鬥後勤和支援艦艇，解放軍海軍也比美國多出41艘艦艇。 
  • 從歷史角度看，艦隊規模較大的國家通常較易取勝，主要是因其吸收損失和繼續戰鬥的能力較強。在最近的戰爭中，雖然中國損失的艦艇比美國多，但他們的水面艦艇數量更多，可以持續進行海戰。 
  • 美國在飛彈巡洋艦和驅逐艦數量上仍占優勢，但中國正在加緊生產此級別的水面艦艇。同時雙方現在都在競相生產小型艦艇或無人艦艇，力圖打造生產效率更快、數量更多的海上軍隊。 
  • 盟友可以幫助美國克服海軍數量不足的問題，但跨國整合相對困難且效果不佳，一些盟友可能不願意與美國並肩作戰。 
中國的生產力  
  • 中國現役軍建中有約70%是在2010年之後生產的，而美國只有25%。不過新的艦艇並不代表品質優良，據美國評估，中國的艦艇品質與美國差不多。 
  • 中國的造船能力遠超美國約230倍。這一優勢讓中國在持久戰中擁有戰略優勢，比美國更快地修復受損艦艇與更換老舊艦艇。 
  • 美國可以依靠日本和韓國維護自己的艦船，但美國的法律限制禁止他們生產美國的軍用艦船。 
  • 因此，只要中國的經濟和勞動力能夠支撐，中國強大的造船能力仍將是中美戰略競爭的重點之一。 
Summary: 
With the rapid expansion and modernization of the PLA Navy, China may soon overtake the US Navy's dominance, triumph over the US in a prolonged great power war, and undermine US allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Although the US still retains certain advantages over China, the US must revitalize its economy and shipbuilding industry to stop the decline of the US Navy. 
China's Numerical Advantage 
  • China now has the world's largest navy fighting force, outnumbering the US by 15 vessels. Even if including combat logistics and support vessels, the PLA Navy has 41 ships more than the US. 
  • From a historical perspective, countries with larger fleets won most of the war due to their ability to absorb losses and keep fighting. In recent wargames, although China lost more ships than the US, China still had more surface vessels and could continue the naval battle. 
  • The US still has the advantage in the number of guided missile cruisers and destroyers, but China is ramping up the production of these classes of surface vessels. Now, both sides are competing in producing smaller or unmanned ships because they could be built faster and in larger numbers. 
  • Allies could help the US overcome China's numerical advantage, but cross-partner integration is difficult and ineffective. Some partners may be reluctant to fight alongside the US. 
China's Productive Power 
  • Around 70% of Chinese current warships were produced after 2010 but for the US, it only accounts for around 25%. However, newer ships do not mean superior quality, but the US evaluated that China's ships have comparable quality to the US ships. 
  • China's superior shipbuilding capacity dwarfs the US by around 230 times. The preeminence gives China a strategic advantage in a prolonged conflict, allowing it to repair damaged vessels or replace obsolete ships faster than the US. 
  • The US could rely on Japan and South Korea to maintain its ships, but US legal restrictions refrain these countries from producing US combat vessels. 
  • Therefore, China's gargantuan shipbuilding capacity will remain a feature of the US-China strategic competition as long as China's economy and workforce can sustain it. 
回上層