作者/Author(s): Dmitri Aleprovitch 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦
 

摘要：

台灣就像冷戰時期的柏林，是兩個超級大國避免武裝衝突的分水嶺。與柏林一樣，台灣對美中都具有象徵意義和地緣政治戰略意義。美國可以從冷戰美蘇緩和的經驗中吸取教訓，與中國達成默契，建立類似柏林圍牆的存在。 

  • 第二次世界大戰結束後，柏林被盟國和蘇聯瓜分。由於美蘇雙方都有控制柏林的具體意圖，柏林逐漸成為美蘇摩擦的導火線。 
  • 雖然蘇聯多次迫使美國撤出西柏林，但美國始終堅持抵抗，最終蘇聯放棄了佔領西柏林的野心，美蘇雙方反而是在柏林牆建立後達成緩和。
  • 美國對這一結果並不滿意，但他們也認為這是一種緩和美蘇緊張局勢的方式。除古巴飛彈危機外，美蘇再也沒有其他極端對抗。此外，美國和蘇聯還能在軍備控制方面合作，減少對西柏林的威脅。
  • 與冷戰時期的柏林類似，中國在考驗美國保護台灣的決心。如果美國放棄台灣，台灣人可能面臨生存危機，而中國則可能重構整個亞太地區乃至世界的地緣政治結構。
  • 為了與中國達成緩和協議，美國必須在台灣海峽建立一個象徵性的屏障，增強台灣的防禦能力，減少中國的經濟影響力，並提醒中國入侵台灣的後果。 
  • 簡而言之，美國和中國都必須接受差強人意的現狀，不決定台灣的獨立地位，不為了生存而開戰，而是維護和平共存。然而實現緩和需要時間，美國必須有耐心，不能越過中國的地緣政治紅線。 
 
Summary: 
Taiwan is akin to Berlin during the Cold War, a region separating two superpowers from armed conflict. Like Berlin, Taiwan is symbolically and geopolitically strategic for both the US and China. The US could derive lessons from the detente with the Soviet Union, which resulted in the erection of the Berlin Wall, to reach similar results with China. 
  • Berlin was divided between the Allied powers and the Soviet Union once the Second World War ended. It also gradually became a cause of US-Soviet friction as both actors had specific intents to control Berlin. 
  • Despite several Soviet attempts to force the US out of West Berlin, the US steadfastly resisted, thus forcing the Soviets to abandon their ambition to take over West Berlin. Instead, a detente was reached after the Soviet Union erected the Berlin Wall.  
  • The result was unsatisfactory to the US, but the US perceived it as a Soviet way to de-escalate tensions. Apart from the Cuban missile crisis, the US and Soviet Union did not have extreme confrontations since then. Further, the US and Soviet Union could cooperate on arms control and reduce the threat to West Berlin. 
  • Similar to Berlin during the Cold War, China is testing the US's resolve to protect Taiwan. If the US abandons Taiwan, the Taiwanese could face an existential crisis and China could reconfigure geopolitical structures across Asia-Pacific and the world. 
  • To achieve detente with China, the US must build a figurative barrier across the Taiwan Strait by increasing Taiwan's defense capabilities, reducing China's economic leverage, and reminding China of the consequences of a Taiwan invasion.  
  • In short, both the US and China must accept an unsatisfactory status quo, which is not determining Taiwan's independence status but preserving peace and coexistence, rather than going into a war on survival. Yet, detente takes time to achieve, therefore, the US must be patient and not cross China's geopolitical red lines. 
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