作者/Author(s): Keith Johnson 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/30/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國際秩序、外交、經濟

摘要：

雖然俄羅斯和中國在 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭開始前宣布建立 「無上限」夥伴關係，但這關係能否持續下去讓人充滿疑惑。

  • 美中之間更緊密的軍事合作已經對美國構成嚴重威脅，同時莫斯科正在幫助中國和美國其他的對手提高軍事能力。 
  • 眾所周知，俄中與西方外交關係之間存在分歧，因此他們更希望創造一個能替代美國主導的國際秩序新方案。 
  • 然而，它們之間的貿易關係存在某些障礙。
  1. 基於西方制裁，俄羅斯可以向中國出口能源，但出口量小於歐洲市場，利潤也很低。
  2. 而且中國也沒有技術能夠幫助俄羅斯提高石油和天然氣的開採產量或維護煉油廠。 
  3. 雖然中國持續推動人民幣國際化，努力去美元化，但人民幣在全球的使用量仍遠遠落後於美金和歐元。
  4. 為了逃避美國的制裁監視，俄羅斯和中國必須支付中間商昂貴的手續費，來促進雙邊貿易。這表明中國銀行害怕美國的制裁，但俄羅斯市場又不值得冒這個風險。 

Summary: 
Although Russia and China declared a "no limits" partnership before the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are doubts about whether it will persist.  
  • Their closer military cooperation poses a grave danger to the US because Moscow is helping China and other US adversaries improve their military capabilities. 
  • In terms of diplomacy, it is publicly known that Russia and China hope to create an alternative to the US-led international order due to their differences with the West. Their alternative order may protect them from the repercussions of their belligerence or at least mitigate the effects of sanctions. 
  • However, their trade relations have certain obstacles. ​​​​​​​
  1. Although Russia could export its energy to China due to Western sanctions, the amount is smaller than the European market and less profitable.  
  2. Further, China does not have the technology to help Russia enhance oil and gas extraction yield or maintain its refining plants. 
  3. Despite their de-dollarization efforts by internationalizing the Chinese Renminbi, the Renminbi is still far behind the US and the euro in terms of global usage. 
  4. Russia and China also have to rely on expensive middlemen to facilitate trade transactions to avoid US surveillance. It shows that Chinese banks are afraid to run afoul of US sanctions and the Russian market is not worth the risk. 
 
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