作者/Author(s): Steven Feldstein and Fiona Brauer 

網站來源/Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 

日期/Date: 03/11/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 制裁 


摘要：
美國及其盟國對俄羅斯實施了各類制裁，阻止其在烏克蘭的特別軍事行動，阻礙其軍事現代化，削弱其關鍵產業與經濟競爭力。俄羅斯關鍵技術嚴重依賴外國來源，因此西方國家對俄羅斯的出口管制涉及多種技術產品，但沒想到俄羅斯對制裁的承受力特別強。 

共同技術的重要性 
  • 俄羅斯將其國內製造基地轉換成戰時狀態，以增加國防工業生產。 
  • 雖然西方禁止俄羅斯獲取尖端技術零件的管道，但俄羅斯從常見電子產品中回收低級晶片，並將其修改用在飛彈和車輛上。 
  • 與軍民兩用技術不同，私營部門所開發的大部分都是通用技術，這些技術很容易取得，也不適合出口管制。
利用全球化供應鏈 
  • 俄羅斯通過中間國家逃避西方的出口管制。部分國際港口看上巨額利潤，沒有加入西方制裁計劃，它們願意和俄羅斯交易受制裁商品，並協助修理俄羅斯船隻。 
  • 俄羅斯還利用其與國際防務承包公司的長期商業關係，獲取關鍵技術零件。
  • 俄羅斯成功逃避制裁揭示了西方出口管制制度的不足。
  1. ​​​​​​​離開美國海岸後，受制裁商品面臨的約束較少。  
  2. 目前的制裁多邊架構側重於軍事應用，但缺乏針對軍民兩用技術的執行機制。 ​​​​​​​
  • 雖然美國試圖擴大管制範圍，但其工業和安全局無法跟上俄羅斯創建空殼公司的速度，美國也面臨缺乏執法資金，追蹤違規者的程序過時等問題。 
地緣政治的轉變 
  • 俄羅斯不僅沒有被孤立，反而在不願與俄羅斯斷絕經濟聯繫的國家、對美國和俄羅斯都友好的國家以及中立國家裡找到了合作夥伴。 
  • 俄羅斯繞過西方制裁的能力表明，世界正在經歷地緣政治分化，許多國家在對西方關係上開始採取避險策略。 
 
Summary: 
The United States and its allies imposed sanction packages on Russia to stop its special operations in Ukraine, impede its military modernization, degrade its critical industries, and hamper its economic competitiveness. Although Western export controls span a wide range of technological products, Russia seems exceptionally resilient to the sanctions, especially when Russia heavily relies on foreign sources for its critical technologies. 

The Importance of Common Technologies 
  • ​​​​​​​Russia shifted its domestic manufacturing base to a war footing to increase defense industrial production.
  • Although the West prohibited Russia's access to advanced technological components, Russia scrapped lower-grade chips from common electronic appliances and modified them for use in missiles and vehicles. 
  • Unlike dual-use technologies, the private sector develops and controls most of the common technologies, making them easily available and not suitable for export controls. 
Leveraging the Globalized Supply Chains 
  • Russia evaded Western export controls via intermediary countries. As some international ports could gain massive profits and did not join the Western sanctions program, they are willing to facilitate the trade of sanctioned goods and repair Russian ships.  
  • Russia also leveraged its long-term business relations with international defense contracting firms to obtain critical technological components. 
  • Russia's success in sanction-busting exposes the deficiency of the Western export control regime.
  1. ​​​​​​​Controlled goods face fewer constraints after leaving the US's shores. 
  2. Current multilateral frameworks focus on military applications but lack the enforcement mechanisms for dual-use technologies. ​​​​​​​
  • Although the US tries to expand its controls, its Bureau of Industry and Security cannot keep pace with the creation of new shell companies, lacks the funding for enforcement, and has outdated procedures to track violators. 
Shifting Geopolitics 
  • Instead of being isolated, Russia found partners among countries reluctant to break economic ties with Russia, countries friendly to both the US and Russia, and neutral governments. 
  • Russia's ability to bypass Western sanctions showed the world is undergoing geopolitical fragmentation, and many countries are willing to hedge against the West. 
 
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