作者/Author(s): Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter 

網站來源/Source: RAND 

日期/Date: 04/04/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、科技 

摘要：

中國正在研究烏克蘭如何成功利用飛彈和無人艦(USV) 破壞俄羅斯黑海艦隊在克里米亞的行動，以識別 USV 的危險以及沿岸基礎設施防禦的對策。 

  • USV 的優勢包括： 
  1. 有效隱蔽 
  2. 製造和使用成本低廉 
  3. 破壞性強 
  4. 智慧控制模式
  5. 自動控制的潛力 
  6. 可結合其他常規平台一同使用 
  • USV 對港口安全的危害： 
  1. 海軍基礎設施是一個很明顯的目標。 
  2. 大型港口很難掩藏，現代監控技術很容易就能探測到港口。 
  3. 港口極易受到攻擊。 
  • 中國如何防禦 USV？ ​​​​​​​
  1. 干擾 USV 的通訊和導航系統。 
  2. 建立一個龐大的海岸防禦系統，協調整合各級政府之間的資訊。 
  3. 解放軍可以部署浮動防禦障礙，保護基礎設施。 ​​​​​​​
  • 中國如何對抗 USV 威脅？ ​​​​​​​
  1. 建立具有不對稱優勢的整合殺傷鏈。
  2. 使用多層次打擊系統、電磁和常規平台組成的多領域聯合火力網，減少消耗精確飛彈，最大限度地提高戰鬥力。
  3. 部署 USV 巡邏海域或考慮攻擊敵方 USV。 
  • 其他教訓： ​​​​​​​
  1. 烏克蘭的成功讓中國看到了如何保護解放軍海軍的昂貴資本投資，以及對抗不對稱威脅嚴重的小國的方式。 
  2. 中國已經逐漸成為無人機超級大國，他們也可以在入侵台灣或封鎖情景中使用 USV。台灣及其夥伴也要從烏克蘭的成功中吸取經驗，加強防禦。 
Summary: 
China is learning from Ukraine's success in undermining the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea using a combination of missiles and unmanned surface vessels (USV) to identify the dangers of USVs and countermeasures for coastal infrastructure defense. 
  • The advantages USVs have: ​​​​​​​
  1. Effective concealment 
  2. Low manufacturing and usage cost 
  3. Destructive 
  4. Intelligent controlling modes 
  5. Potential for autonomous control 
  6. Could be incorporated with other conventional platforms. 
  • The dangers of USVs on port security: ​​​​​​​
  1. Naval infrastructure is an obvious target. 
  2. It is difficult to camouflage large ports and modern surveillance technologies can easily detect ports.
  3. Ports are highly vulnerable to attacks. 
  • How China could defend against USVs? ​​​​​​​
  1. Disrupt the communication and navigation systems of USVs. 
  2. Create a coastal defense system that is expansive and coordinates information flow across different levels of the government.  
  3. The PLA could deploy floating defensive barricades to protect its infrastructures. ​​​​​​​
  • How China could counterattack USV threats? ​​​​​​​
  1. Create a consolidated kill chain network with asymmetrical advantages. 
  2. Use a multilayered strike system and multi-domain interlocking fire network of electromagnetic and conventional platforms to reduce the expenditure of precision missiles and maximize combat effectiveness. 
  3. Deploy USVs to patrol the seas or attack enemy USVs. ​​​​​​​
  • Other lessons: ​​​​​​​
  1. Ukraine's success gives China an outlook on how to protect the PLA Navy's expensive capital investments and counter a smaller country that poses serious asymmetric threats. 
  2. China could also use USVs in a Taiwan invasion or blockade scenario, especially when it is a drone superpower. Therefore, Taiwan and its partners could develop lessons from Ukraine's success to reinforce its defenses. 
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