作者/Author(s): Daniel H. Rosen and Logan Wright 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/27/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟


摘要：
在新冠疫情爆發之前，中國一直享受著持續強勁的經濟增長。然而，疫情結束後的經濟停滯表明，中國的出口導向政策無法持續，必須進行改革。許多觀察家和政策制定者希望中國在剛結束的全國人民代表大會中調整政策，將國內消費納入經濟改革重點。然而，中國卻加倍推行拖延結構性改革，加深了經濟對外來需求的依賴。因此，外國政府將對中國商品採取反傾銷措施，以保護本國經濟。 
  • 1980 年代，日本也面臨著類似的國際反彈，其結構性問題導致對外產品不利，以及日圓被低估等因素，讓日本備受壓力。在其他發達經濟體施壓之下，日本推動經濟政策改革，以解決貿易失衡問題，但這波改革並未危及日本的經濟發展。
  • 目前也開始有其他經濟體準備限制中國不斷增長的出口量，中國是否會改革其貿易政策值得觀察。國外的限制也會導致中國外匯收入減少，必須轉向國內消費才能獲得財政資源。然而，北京政府在最近的全國人大會議上並未解決這一問題，甚至還加倍擴大中國的製造能力，以擴大出口。此外，中國的國防預算還提高了7.2%，這表明中國政府將軍事置於永續人力資本與家庭發展投資之上。 
  • 中國宣稱要成為新興未來導向行業的全球領導者，此舉引發世界其他國家或地區對中國工業政策的不滿，其他國家認為這將削弱他們的競爭力。 
  • 在全國人大會議無視發達經濟體提出的改革貿易政策要求後，中國似乎認為他們不必與發達經濟體的做法一樣。 
Summary: 
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, China enjoyed constant strong economic growth. However, economic stagnation after the end of the pandemic shows that China's export-oriented policies are unsustainable and must be reformed. Many observers and policymakers hoped that China would tilt its policy to prioritize domestic consumption as part of the economic reform in the recent National People's Congress (NPC). Instead, China doubled down on initiatives that delay structural reforms and deepen its economic reliance on foreign demands. Consequently, foreign governments would use antidumping measures on Chinese goods to protect their economy. 
  • Japan faced a similar international backlash in the 1980s due to its structural problems that disfavored foreign products and an undervalued Japanese Yen. After being pressured by other advanced economies, Japan reformed its economic policies to address trade imbalances, but the reform did not jeopardize Japan's economic development. 
  • As other economies are preparing to restrict the growing volume of Chinese exports, it is questionable whether China would reform its trade policies. Since the restriction would limit China's income, it must shift to domestic consumption to gain financial resources. However, the Beijing government did not address this issue in the recent NPC and even doubled down in expanding Chinese manufacturing capacity to expand its exports. Further, China also increased its defense budget by 7.2%, showing the government's prioritization of the military over sustainable human capital or household development investments. 
  • The rest of the world is unpleasant about China's industrial policy, especially when it declares to be a global leader in emerging and future-oriented industries that would undermine competitors in other economies. 
  • China seemingly views convergence with the trade practices with developed economies are irrelevant after it ignored requests from advanced economies to reform its trade policies before the NPC.
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