作者/Author(s): Tao Wang 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、社會 

摘要：

雖然北京一再強調兩岸統一是不可動搖的國家目標，但人民反對通過戰爭來實現這個目標。中國人民對強制統一台灣不感興趣，而是更在意他們目前面臨的社會和經濟不滿。 

  • 在先前的台灣選舉中，民族主義和支持戰爭的情緒在中國各地迴盪。無論如何，民眾對統一的支持是強烈的。 
  • 此外，中國在全球舞台的崛起以及成功控制COVID-19，人民相信台灣必定很容易屈服於中國的壓力。
  • 然而，傾向獨立的民進黨在 2024 台灣總統選舉中獲勝，這給中國帶來了一個痛苦的提醒：台灣人對兩岸政治統一不感興趣，這也讓中國人民懷疑強制統一是否有必要、可行性高不高。
  • 社會經濟方面的不滿情緒改變了中國人民對台灣問題的看法。中國人民希望中共政府能優先解決關鍵的社會經濟問題，在台灣問題上保持現狀。此外，北京未能持續採取過往的激進宣傳行動，讓不少強硬派民族主義者感到失望。 
  • 雖然北京政府鎮壓自由主義的活動，但台灣的政治模式重新激發了中國人民對民主中國前景的興趣。
  • 在強制統一台灣的問題上，中國民眾的分歧更大。這也表明，與民族主義或侵略性言論相比，社會經濟方面的不滿更能左右中國人民的情緒。
Summary: 
Despite Beijing reiterating Taiwan reunification as an unwavering national goal, the public opposes achieving the aim through war. Instead of a forced Taiwan reunification, the Chinese public is more concerned about the social and economic grievances that they currently face. 
  • In the previous Taiwan elections, nationalist and pro-war sentiments reverberate across China. The public support for unification, by all means, is strong.  
  • Further, China's rise on the global stage and its success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic drove public confidence that Taiwan would capitulate easily. 
  • Yet, the 2024 Taiwanese presidential elections, which the pro-independence DPP won, present China with a bitter reminder that the Taiwanese are disinterested in a political unification with China. It also sows doubts among the Chinese public whether a forced unification is feasible or necessary. 
  • Socio-economic discontent changed the Chinese public sentiment over the Taiwan issue. The Chinese public hopes that the CCP government can resolve critical socio-economic issues first and maintain the status quo for the Taiwan issue. Further, Beijing failed to act upon its previous aggressive propaganda, disappointing hardline nationalists.  
  • Despite government crackdowns on pro-liberal activities, Taiwan's political model renewed Chinese public interest in the prospect of a democratic China. 
  • The Chinese public is more divided in the question of forced Taiwan unification. It also shows that socioeconomic grievances shape Chinese public sentiments more than nationalism or aggressive rhetoric. 
 
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