編輯器

FP: 台灣在烏克蘭被侵略後重新思考國防問題

作者/Author(s): Hilton Yip 

原文來源/Source: 《外交政策》 Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 02/28/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Defense, Grand Strategy, Foreign Policy 
 

摘要:

在俄烏危機後,台灣需要對中國的軍事集結和持續挑釁作出回應。雖然台灣擁有地理優勢和美國及其盟國的支持,但仍需重新評估其軍事後勤、人力、續航力和行動。

  • 最近發生數起致命的空軍意外事件意味著軍隊的維護和職能方面存在問題。 
  • 台灣應該增加徵兵時間,以及涵蓋不同性別,就像韓國和新加坡所做的那樣,它們有18個月的徵兵期;或者以色列,該國內所有性別人民都有兩年的強制兵役。 
  • 強調並加快預備役人員的培訓改革,以達到快速動員的目標。 
  • 台灣政府需要現實地讓民眾做好準備以面對任何潛在衝突,儘管這可能會引起恐慌,甚至造成地方選舉中人民支持率下降。
  • 儘管在俄烏危機發生後,台灣在國際上有更高的知名度和支持,但台灣也需要在國防方面更加獨立。
  • 西方國家所主導的國際秩序未能阻止普丁的行動,他們也沒有向烏克蘭提供軍事援助。
  • 美國在亞洲有對抗中國的戰略聯盟,但其還遠沒有北約的規模。
  • 美國不願向烏克蘭提供軍事支持,令人懷疑美國是否會在需要時向台灣提供援助 (儘管台灣具有戰略意義)。
  • 中國可能會在美國集中於處理烏克蘭事件時加劇台灣海峽的緊張局勢。 

Summary: 

Taiwan needs to respond to China’s military build-up and continuous provocations, especially after the Ukrainian Crisis. Although Taiwan has a geographical advantage and backing from the US and its allies, Taiwan still needs to reevaluate its military logistics, manpower, maintenance, and operations. 

  • The recent number of fatal air-force incidents implied problems in the maintenance and functions of the military.  
  • Taiwan should increase the conscription period and include all genders, as done by South Korea and Singapore, which have 18-month conscription; or Israel, which has two-year mandatory military service for all genders. 
  • Emphasize and hasten reservist training reforms for rapid mobilization. 
  • The Taiwanese government needs to be realistic in preparing the public for any potential conflict, although it may cause panic and harm support in local elections. 
  • Taiwan needs to be more independent in national defense despite having a high international profile and support amid the Ukrainian crisis.  
  • The Western-dominated international order failed to stop Putin and did not provide military aid to Ukraine.  
  • The US has strategic alliances in Asia to counter China, but it is not at the scale of NATO.  
  • The US’s reluctance to provide military support to Ukraine casts doubts on whether the US will come to Taiwan’s assistance when needed despite the strategic significance of Taiwan.  
  • China may  take advantage of the US’s distraction in Ukraine to heighten the tension in the Taiwan Strait.