作者/Author(s): Irene Entringer Garcia Blanes, Ian Harman, Susan Peterson, and Michael J. Tierney 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 02/06/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、美中台關係、調查 

摘要：

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭不久後，威廉和瑪麗學院全球研究所的教學、研究和國際政策（TRIP）計劃詢問國際關係學者，「中國是否將對台灣發動攻擊」。大多數專家認為中國不會很快使用武力，但中國在 1 月 13 日台灣總統大選前敵意有所增加，在台灣周邊海域舉行大規模軍事演習。更糟的是，美國加強其與日本和韓國的軍事合作關係，以遏制中國對台灣的侵略。TRIP 項目再次詢問了國際關係專家，美國對烏克蘭危機的反應是否會影響中國入侵台灣的可能性。以下是主要內容： 

  • 美國對烏克蘭危機的反應並不會影響或降低中國軍事入侵台灣的可能性。 
  1. 一些專家認為，美國發出的矛盾訊息和美國的過度擴張，不會改變北京的計算。
  2. 其他專家則認為，美國對烏克蘭的承諾也加強了其對中國的嚇阻。 
  3. 極少數專家指出，美國在另一個戰線支持戰爭的能力有憲，以及不願繼續支持烏克蘭的態度，讓中國得以推進對台灣的入侵行動。 
  • 從國際關係理論的角度來看： ​​​​​​​
  1. 大多數自由主義者或不用理論來看事件的學者認為，美國的反應降低了中國入侵台灣的可能性。 
  2. 大多數現實主義者、建構主義者和其他人認為，美國的反應不會影響中國的行為。
  • ​​​​​​​從區域研究的角度來看，大多學者們認為美國的反應不會改變或降低中國對台動武的意願。但相比東亞或其他地區的專家，許多具有俄羅斯或前蘇聯專業知識的學者認為美國的反應加強了中國對台動武的可能性。 
Summary: 
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) project at William & Mary's Global Research Institute asked IR scholars whether a Chinese attack on Taiwan was imminent. Most experts assumed China would not use force soon, but China increased its hostility before the Taiwan Presidential Election on January 13 with large-scale military exercises near the island. To make matters worse, the US reinforced its military partnership with Japan and South Korea to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. The TRIP project asked IR experts again whether the US's response to the Ukrainian Crisis would affect the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The following are the key summaries: 
  • The US's reaction to the Ukrainian Crisis has not affected or decreased the probability of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan. ​​​​​​​
  1. Some experts argued that conflicting messages from the US and an overstretched US will not change Beijing's calculus. 
  2. Others argued that the US's commitment to Ukraine reinforced deterrence against China. 
  3. Few experts noted that a limited US military capacity to support war at another front and its reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine allows China to advance its attack on Taiwan. ​​​​​​​
  • From an IR theory perspective: ​​​​​​​
  1. Most liberalists or scholars who do not use any theories believe the US's reaction decreased the probability of a Chinese invasion. 
  2. Most realists, constructivists, and others believe the US's response does not affect Chinese behavior.  
  • From a regional studies perspective, although scholars believe the US response does not change or decrease China's willingness to use force against Taiwan, more scholars with Russian or former Soviet Union expertise believe it has increased China's probability to increase hostility than experts in East Asia or others. 
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