作者/Author(s): A. Wess Mitchell 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/16/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense 

摘要：

由於東歐和中東已經發生了兩場衝突，美國可能會被迫捲入一場會輸掉的世界大戰。同時，中國在東亞地區也如鯊魚一般圍著台灣轉。如果中國決定入侵台灣，這場衝突可能會直接或間接地將美國捲入一場世界大戰。雖然這聽起來有點杞人憂天，但美國必須為潛在的全球衝突做好準備。
 

美國的劣勢： 
  • 長期以來，美國一直是最強大的國家，它可能會在專注於印太區域之前，先利用烏克蘭牽制甚至擊敗俄羅斯。
  • 然而，隨著俄烏戰爭進入持久戰，中東發生新衝突後，中國看到了入侵台灣的機會之窗，並考驗美國保衛台灣的決心。 
  • 地理位置是美國的最大障礙。美國的主要對手只需要取得近距離的優勢，而美國必須要遙遠的位置與裝備落後的盟國共同作戰。這些盟友無法抵禦強敵。 
  • 此外，中國在船艦數量上已經超越了美國，甚至還在不斷增長中。 
  • 美國不斷上升的債務水平也限制了其國防支出，甚至可能會對美國經濟和金融體系造成破壞。 
  • 如果全球衝突真的發生，可能會推高能源價格，造成嚴重的通貨膨脹。中國可能會利用其持有的美國債務和貿易優勢，進一步制約美國經濟。 
  • 美國的對手也具有能夠打到美國，並造成人員傷亡等高昂代價的能力。
為嚇阻做好準備 
  • 美國必須確保烏克蘭、以色列和台灣擁有自衛所需的軍備，以阻止或遏制衝突蔓延。然而，俄烏危機已經消耗了美國的大量庫存，生產補充速度跟不上消耗速度，因此美國必須加強其國防工業基礎。 
  • 美國還必須增加國防開支。但是，美國可能需要重新調整各類社會計劃的資金，以在不擴大債務的情況下增加國防開支。 
  • 美國也必須堅定要求盟國承擔更大的責任，以確保地區和平，避免干擾美國政策的優先順序。
Summary: 
The US may be embroiled in a world war that it could lose as two conflicts already occurred in Eastern Europe and the Middle East while China is circling Taiwan like a shark in East Asia. If China decides to invade Taiwan, the conflict may draw the US directly or indirectly into a world war. Although it sounds fearmongering, the US must prepare itself for a possible global conflict. 

The Disadvantaged US: 
  • The US has been the most powerful state for a long time, and it may inflict defeat over Russia through Ukraine before focusing on the Indo-Pacific. 
  • However, as Russia prepares for a protracted war and a new conflict happens in the Middle East, China sees a window of opportunity to invade Taiwan and test the US's commitment to defend Taiwan.
  • Geography is the main hurdle for the US. US key adversaries only need to achieve proximal superiority, while the US must fight far-flung theaters with poorly-equipped allies that cannot defend themselves against a strong enemy.  
  • Further, China outproduced the US in terms of number of ships and is growing. 
  • The US's rising debt level also constrains its defense spending and may devastate the US economy and financial system. 
  • If a global conflict does happen, it may push energy prices up, causing serious inflation. China may use its holding of US debt and trade advantage to constrain the US economy further. 
  • The US adversaries also have capabilities that could reach the US and inflict high human costs. 
Preparation as Deterrence 
  • The US must ensure Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have the armament that they require for self-defense to stop or deter conflicts from spreading. Yet, the US must ramp up its defense-industrial base as the Ukrainian Crisis drains much US inventory while replenishment is slow. 
  • The US must also increase its defense spending. However, the US may need to recalibrate its funding for popular social programs to increase defense spending without expanding its debt. 
  • The US must also insist its allies take greater responsibility in ensuring regional peace and avert their policy priorities. 
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