作者/Author(s): Chris Dougherty, Jennie Matuschak and Ripley Hunter
原文來源/Source: Center for a New American Security
日期/Date: October 26, 2021
關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Defense
摘要:
CNAS在2021年進行了一場軍事演習,起始於中國奪取東沙群島中的一個島嶼。中國可以利用先發優勢、有限的領土收益和地理位置的優勢來限制衝突升級。
美國和台灣的選擇很有限
- 如果美國和台灣不想讓危機升級,就必須在不使局勢升級的情況下,努力並冒險收復失地。在這種場景之下,非軍事懲罰措施耗時過長,無法迫使中國放棄已取得的成果。
- 另一方面,如果美國和台灣採取積極的軍事反應或其他威逼手段,那麼可能會導致戰爭爆發。
- 總而言之,美國和台灣很有可能無法將局勢恢復到衝突前。
台灣和美國重要的一課
- 台灣應將東沙群島變成「毒蛙」,給中國帶來軍事、經濟和政治上的巨大衝擊。
- 在當地駐軍,給入侵部隊造成巨大傷害。
- 準備摧毀這些島嶼上的任何關鍵基礎設施。
- 透過資訊戰揭露中國的好戰性
- 美國和台灣必須在中國採取行動之前就協調規劃好嚇阻政策。
- 如果危機爆發,美國和台灣必須保持暢通的溝通管道,避免誤解,防止衝突升級。
- 美國和台灣必須得到日本的支持,以獲得更大的還擊能力。日本的參與對於迫使中國軍隊撤出並防止衝突蔓延至日本領土來說非常重要。
- 美國和台灣必須加強地區安全合作,共同抵禦中國的欺凌。
Summary:
CNAS conducted a wargame in 2021, which started with China seizing one of the islands in the Dongsha Islands. China could limit the conflict from escalating with a first-mover advantage, limited territorial gains, and geographical proximity.
Limited options for the US and Taiwan
Limited options for the US and Taiwan
- If the US and Taiwan do not wish to escalate the crisis, they must push hard and take risks to regain lost territories without escalating the situation. Non-military punishments took too long to effectuate and cannot compel China to abandon its gains.
- On the other hand, if the US and Taiwan use aggressive military responses or other coercive alternatives, it will lead to a war.
- In conclusion, the US and Taiwan may not revert the situation to a status quo ante.
The Key Lessons for the US and Taiwan
- Taiwan should turn the Dongsha Islands into "poison frogs," which inflict high military, economic, and political pains on China.
- Place local garrisons that can cause great harm to the invasion forces.
- Prepare to destroy any critical infrastructures in those islands.
- Expose Chinese belligerence through information warfare.
- The US and Taiwan must plan and coordinate deterrence policies before China acts.
- If a crisis breaks out, the US and Taiwan must maintain clear lines of communication to avoid misunderstandings and prevent conflict escalation.
- The US and Taiwan must get Japan's backing for greater bargaining power. Japan's involvement is important to force Chinese forces to withdraw and prevent the conflict from spreading into Japanese territories.
- The US and Taiwan must build greater regional security cooperation that will stand up against China's bullying.