作者：Mark Leonard
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jun 20, 2023
 

迎向未來

• 中國認為美國假設的新冷戰已經爆發。儘管中國在地緣政治上有成為大國的野心，但它主張多元的觀念和尊重主權，而非中國統治下的世界秩序。
• 過去，中國主要通過經濟和發展參與世界。但現在它也逐漸在中東和北非發揮外交影響力，斡旋和平，促進穩定。
• 雖然西方懷疑中國是否能夠成功，但中國的積極進取已經凸顯出，他們正在變得更加積極和有野心。

備胎和鎖頭

• 中國認為西方試圖遏制其崛起。然而，有證據表明，西方並不希望與中國完全脫鉤，只是希望確保其商業安全並減少對中國進口商品的依賴。
• 面對西方的經濟遏制，習近平採取了分化經濟的策略，在經濟上加強自裡自足的能力，同時加深與部分經濟體的相互依存關係，以確保獲得原材料和關鍵商品。
• 北京還開始與西方經濟需求和金融體系脫鉤，以降低西方制裁的影響。
• 北京還希望其他國家更多依賴它，以作為其在對抗西方秩序時的政治籌碼。
• 習近平思想可能會改變全球經濟秩序，但中國目前還面臨著國內人口和經濟方面的挑戰，加上外部限制，這些挑戰只會更加雪上加霜。

分化的世界?

• 冷戰將世界劃分為西方集團、共產主義集團和不結盟集團。這一趨勢在今天依然存在。美國試圖複製當年通過結盟和分裂打垮蘇聯的戰略，而中國則奉行讓各國決定自己命運或與多國結盟的政策。
• 北京的想定更為準確，因為：
  • 意識形態在當前的地緣政治氛圍中較沒有作用，無法幫助形成聯盟。
  • 中國與美國及其盟友都沒有支配全球經濟的地位。
  • 當前的世界經濟相互依存，這可以防止形成穩定的經濟陣營。
• 中國認為，西方對許多國家的無知導致了冷戰後秩序的惡化。在這一過渡階段，中國是比美國更具吸引力的合作夥伴，因為中國政府將允許其他國家在國際舞台上擁有更大的發言權。

 

Moving into the Future

• China believes the US assumes a new Cold War has broken out. Although China has geopolitical ambitions of becoming a great power, it advocates a pluralism of ideas than a Chinese world order and respect for sovereignty.
• China engaged the world mainly through economic and development aspects, but now, it wields its diplomatic influence in the Middle East and North Africa to broker peace and foster stability.
• Although the West doubt China can succeed, it shows China is becoming more active and ambitious.

Spare Wheels and Body Locks

• China perceives the West tries to contain its rise. However, evidence suggests that the West does not wish to decouple with China, only hoping to secure its businesses and reduce its reliance on Chinese imports.
• Xi responds to Western economic containment through a bifurcated economy, increasing economic self-reliance and deepening interdependence with selected economies to secure its access to raw materials and critical goods.
• Beijing also starts to decouple from Western economic demand and financial system to cushion the impact of Western sanctions.
• Beijing also wants other actors to rely on it more as political leverage against the Western order.
• Xi's ideas could change the global economic order, but China currently faces domestic demographic and economic challenges exacerbated by external constraints.

Divided World?

• The Cold War divides the world into the Western bloc, Communist bloc, and non-aligned blocs. This trend is observable today. While the US seeks to replicate the strategy that brought down the Soviet Union through alliance and division, China pursues policies that let countries decide their own fate or align with multiple powers.
• Beijing's assumption is more accurate because:
  • Ideology plays a weaker role in the current geopolitical climate and, thus, is ineffective in forming coalitions.
  • Neither China nor the US and their coalitions dominate the global economy.
  • The current world is economically interdependent, which can prevent the creation of stable economic blocs.
• China believes the Western ignorance of many countries caused the deterioration of the post-Cold War order. In this transitory phase, China is a more attractive partner than the US, as Beijing will allow other countries to have a greater voice on the international stage.