FA: 中國已經準備好面對失序的世界 (Part 1)


作者：Mark Leonard
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jun 20, 2023

摘要：
普丁和習近平一致認為，自上個世紀以來，世界秩序正發生前所未有的變化。習近平估計世界將從有序轉向混亂狀態，因此他正在為此做準備。然而，美國認為中國想要修改西方自由秩序，美國則是試圖維護現有體系。雖然美國和中國都同意後冷戰秩序正在結束，但兩方的做法不同。美國力求進行一場像冷戰時期的大國競爭，其透過孤立那些不贊同自己原則的國家來達到這個目標。相較之下，中國正在擁抱多元化和多極化的世界，以成為一個強大的大國。
 

中國的生存之道

  • 美國認為俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭已經威脅到基於規則的國際秩序，西方必須挺身而出。而中國將其視為混亂時代的開始，各國必須做好應對的準備。
  • 中國這種觀點受到了很多全球南方國家的歡迎與支持，而這些國家恰恰是被西方忽略的族群。這些全球南方國家厭惡美國「虛偽地」維護國際秩序的嘴臉，因此他們樂於見到西方勢力的衰弱，並希望新的國際秩序能夠更具包容性。
  • 「習近平思想」是中國在多極世界中運作的最高指導原則，旨在領導中國成為一個強大和穩定的大國。
  • 習近平還將社會達爾文主義運用到他的思想中，即國家必須進化或為生存而鬥爭。
  • 習近平意識到政治的各個方面都可以被武器化。因此，他採用全面的國家安全方法，建立了一個研究中心來了解國家安全的各個方面。

對立的觀點

  • 中國領導人認為美國是對他們生存的最大威脅，並認為美國的競爭政策符合其國內的極化和全球影響力的下降。
  • 中國不少戰略家也認為美國利用俄烏戰爭來挑撥民主國家對抗獨裁國家，並為其在印太地區建立聯盟找理由。
  • 雖然美國將聯合國決議譴責俄羅斯在烏克蘭的暴行視為一種成就，但其實有更多國家拒絕加入美國對俄羅斯的制裁。
  • 中國不可能在結盟問題上超越美國，但它可以利用美國在全球南方逐漸衰敗的影響力，幫助這些國家發展和生存。
Summary：
Putin concurred with Xi Jinping that unprecedented changes in the world order since the last century are happening. Xi anticipated the world would transition from ordered into a disordered state and is preparing for it. However, the US assumes China is trying to revise the Western liberal order and is trying to preserve the current system. While the US and China agreed that the post-Cold War order was ending, both actors have different approaches. The US seeks to engage in a Cold-War-esque great power competition by aligning like-minded countries and isolating those not sharing its principles. In contrast, China is embracing the fragmented and multipolar world where it can be a great power.
 

China the Survivor

  • The US perceives the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a threat to the rule-based international order, which the West must protect. China sees it as the beginning of the era of disorder, and countries must prepare to withstand it.
  • China's view is popular and supported among the global South countries. The West ignores these countries, and they loathe US's hypocrisy in upholding the international order. Therefore, they welcomed the decline of Western power and hoped the new order would be revised to be more inclusive.
  • The "Xi Jinping Thought" is the guiding principle for China to navigate itself in the multipolar world, aiming to be a strong and stable power.
  • Xi also applied social Darwinism in his thinking, where countries must evolve or struggle for survival.
  • Xi realizes all aspects of politics can be weaponized. Therefore, Xi applied a holistic approach to national security and created a research center to understand all aspects of national security.

Clashing Visions

  • Chinese leaders perceive the US as the principal threat to their survival and believe the US's competition policy corresponds to its domestic polarization and the decline of global influence.
  • Chinese strategists assume the US uses the Ukrainian War to pit democracies against autocracies and justify its alliance-building in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • Although the US took pride in the number of supporting UN resolutions condemning Russian atrocity in Ukraine, more countries refused to join US sanctions on Russia.
  • China cannot outperform the US on alliances, but it can capitalize US's waning influence in the global South by helping those countries to develop and survive.
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