FP: 美國需要針對中國建立一個經濟戰略委員會 (Part 1)

作者:Charles Edel and Edward Fishman
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Apr 6, 2023

摘要:

鑑於台灣總統蔡英文與美國眾議院議員兩次高調會面，中國威脅要對台灣進行嚴重報復，使亞洲的緊張局勢達到新的高度。儘管要避免中國收復台灣是有辦法的，但習近平仍然堅持他的統一目標，而且並不排除否定使用武力。如果中國決定入侵台灣，將會對全球貿易和供應鏈造成嚴重干擾，尤其是對美國在印太地區的密切盟友。考慮到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的情況，美國除了與台灣及其盟友聯絡軍事威懾外，還必須制定經濟應急計劃來威懾中國。
 

烏克蘭危機的教訓
  • 在2014年克里米亞併吞事件中，美國及其主要盟友也對俄羅斯實施了經濟懲罰，但其力度不大。
  • 自2021年底，在知道普丁可能準備入侵後，美國及其盟友組成的聯盟已經開始計劃之後的制裁方案，以威懾俄羅斯。該聯盟也曾警告普丁，但仍未能阻止俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭。
  • 普丁低估了西方的決心，最終決定繼續進行入侵。西方為報復而凍結了俄羅斯的外匯儲備，限制俄羅斯對其戰爭資金的使用。
  • 如果普丁計算得更正確，他應該會在入侵前指示俄羅斯央行多樣化其外匯存底。
  • 西方準確地預測到制裁不會改變普丁的計算方式。因此，西方加大對烏克蘭的軍事援助力度。
  • 隨著危機的持續，制裁的目的是要縮減和減少普丁的戰鬥能力。到目前為止，制裁已經成功縮減了俄羅斯的經濟和生產能力，這使普丁很難為其部隊提供補給。
  • 制裁雖然影響了俄羅斯的作戰能力，但其仍未能帶來最終的勝利，而且來的也太晚。
  • 美國從烏克蘭危機中得到的主要教訓是，消耗性制裁更有用，也更有破壞性。但如果不能阻止敵人的入侵行動，這些制裁將毫無作用。
Summary:
China threatens Taiwan with serious retaliation in light of high-profile meetings between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen and US House Sepakers on two occasions, bringing the tension in Asia to new heights. Although a Chinese takeover of Taiwan is avoidable, Xi still upholds his reunification aim tightly and has not dismissed the use of force. If China decides to invade Taiwan, it will cause severe disruption to the global trade and supply chains, especially to close US allies in the Indo-Pacific region. In light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US must formulate economic contingency plans to deter China, besides liaising military deterrence with Taiwan and its allies.

Lessons from the Ukrainian Crisis
  • In the 2014 Annexation of Crimea, the US and its key allies punished Russia economically, albeit weakly.
  • Since late 2021, after knowing that Putin may be preparing for an invasion, the coalition planned for future sanctioning options to deter Russia. The alliance warned Putin but still failed to stop the attack.
  • Putin underestimated the West's resolution and proceeded with the invasion. The West froze Russia's foreign exchange reserve in retaliation, limiting Russia's access to its war chest.
  • If Putin had calculated correctly, he would have directed Russia's central bank to diversify its foreign exchange reserve before the invasion.
  • The West correctly predicted the sanctions would not change Putin's calculus. Thus, the West ramped up military aid to Ukraine.
  • As the crisis continues, the sanctions aim to limit and reduce Putin's warfighting capability. So far, the sanctions have succeeded in shrinking Russia's economy and production capacity, making it hard for Putin to resupply its forces.
  • The sanctions affected Russia's warfighting capability but were still undecisive and late.
  • The main lesson to the US from the Ukrainian crisis is that attritional sanctions are more useful and damaging, but they will be useless if it fails to stop an invasion.
回上層