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War on the Rocks: 正確處理《台灣政策法》 


 

作者/Author(s): Richard L. Armitage and Zack Cooper 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 08/29/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics


摘要:
中國和美國在台灣問題上沒有達成共識，但國會和拜登政府之間也是如此。而這種內訌可能會在參議院即將要討論的《台灣政策法》議題上產生摩擦。

《台灣政策法》 
  • 這是一部標誌著美國承諾支持台灣對抗中國侵略的法律。 
  • 該法案旨在深化美台軍事關係，加快武器交付期程以維護兩岸和平。
  • 但是，該法案需要時間才能生效。 因此，有些立法者希望及時加入具有象徵性的內容，以表達支持台灣和威懾中國之立場。 

象徵性內容的危險 
  • 它可能會適得其反地加劇兩岸緊張局勢。 
  • 過分強調象徵性內容顯示出，與「中國威脅」和「支持台灣」兩者有關的價值觀及利益之間，有著根本性的差異。 
  • 中國最近的行動使得美國陷入兩難境地： 
  1. 中國正在改變現狀，但其不會引起軍事衝突。反之，如果台灣的支持增加，中國將更具侵略性。
  2. 對台軍售可以在謹慎考慮後慢慢加速。但增加象徵性支持只會加劇兩岸緊張局勢，反而不能起到對中國的威懾作用。 
  • 美國行政部門認為他們要有更多的象徵性克制，因為習近平認為美國才是改變現狀的一方。 然而，酌情處理並不容易，因為美國和台灣將在2024年都有大選。 
  • 如果國會和白宮不能就象徵意義的程度達成一致，他們只會讓北京、台北和美國人民感到困惑。 
  • 尼克森總統時代也有類似的情況，但現在的情況更加危險，因為兩岸的軍事平衡嚴重有利於中國。 
總而言之，美國應在軍事和經濟方面加快《台灣政策法》的實施，但在內容方面應該要避免太多的象徵性文字出現，才不會激怒中國。 

Summary: 
China and the US do not have an understanding regarding the Taiwan issue, but it is also the same between congress and the Biden administration. The infighting could cause frictions on the Taiwan Policy Act, which the Senate will debate. 

The Taiwan Policy Act: 
  • It is a law that signifies US’s commitment to supporting Taiwan against China’s aggression. 
  • The act aims to deepen military ties between the US and Taiwan and hasten weapon deliveries to preserve cross-strait harmony. 
  • However, the act will take time to effect. Thus, some legislators wish to include prompt symbolism to show support for Taiwan and deter China. 

The Dangers of Symbolism 
  • It may escalate cross-strait tension unnecessarily or become counter-productive. 
  • Overemphasis on symbolism shows fundamental differences in values and interests related to China’s threat and Taiwan’s support. 
  • China’s recent actions increase US’s dilemmas: ​​​​​​​
  1. China is changing the status quo but will not cause a military conflict. Instead, China will be more aggressive if Taiwan’s supports increases.  
  2. Arms sales need to be accelerated discreetly, but increased symbolic support will escalate cross-strait tensions instead of deterring them. ​​​​​​​
  • The executive branch asks for more symbolic restraint because Xi Jinping thinks the US is the one altering the status quo. However, discretion isn’t easy because the US and Taiwan are going into elections in 2024.
  • If congress and the White House cannot agree on the extent of symbolism, they will only confuse Beijing, Taipei, and the American people. 
  • While a similar situation occurred during Nixon’s era, the current situation is more dangerous because the cross-strait military balance heavily favors China. 

In sum, the US should hasten the military and economic aspects of the Taiwan Policy Act and refrain from symbolism to avoid from provocating China. 
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