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FP: 我們仍在台海戰爭議題上提出錯誤的問題
 

作者/Author(s): Howard. W. French 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/19/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Grand Strategy 

摘要:

美國有一個智庫針對中國在有美國干預的情況下被迫統一台灣的情境進行模擬兵推。結果：台灣安全存活，美國和中國損失慘重，全球經濟崩潰。該篇作者認為，與其模擬美中台戰爭衝突要如何操作，不如優先避免戰爭。 

加強台灣的嚇阻能力： 

  • 美國應持續與台灣分享詳細情報，台灣則需針對這些情報做好相應準備。
  • 應該向本土和國內觀眾展現台灣自我防衛的意願和能力，從採購更多防禦性武器開始，以實現不對稱防禦概念。 

 等待中共統一台灣的目標逐漸消失 
  • 由於台灣在地理上靠近中國大陸，從長遠來看，台灣仍然是解放軍的軍事威脅。
  • 台灣政治人物和外國政黨應避免公開或直截了當地討論台灣獨立問題，這是因為雖然中共從未統治過台灣，但其仍把將收復台灣視為優先事項。 
  • 台灣最好的選擇是盡量延遲與中國的直球對決，寄希望於中國內部有一場政治文化革命—雖然這幾乎是不可能的。 
  • 台灣的一絲希望是，中國人口下降將會對其的未來造成根本性的影響。
  1. 由於人口老齡化嚴重，未來幾年北京的資源將從軍事領域轉向社會保障和醫療保健。 
  2. 支持中國的大規模基礎設施項目的人口變少，這會給北京帶來經濟和財政上的負擔。 
  3. 高齡化和不斷擴大的中國中產階級人口可能希望和平以及更自由的政治制度。 
 
Summary: 
One US think tank conducted a wargaming simulation on China’s forced reunification with Taiwan with the intervention of the US. The result: Taiwan is secured, but the US and China sustained heavy losses, and the global economy collapsed. The author argued that instead of simulating how Taiwan, the US, and China should fight, the priority of avoiding a war should be predominant. 

Improving Taiwan's deterrence ability: 
  • The US can share detailed intelligence with Taiwan constantly, and Taiwan should prepare accordingly.
  • Taiwan should assure local and domestic audiences of the will and ability for Taiwan's defense, starting by procuring more defensive armament to materialize the asymmetric defense concept. 

Wait for CCP’s aim for Taiwan reunification to wane off
  • Due to Taiwan’s geographical proximity to China, Taiwan is still PLA’s military threat in the long term. 
  • Taiwanese politicians and foreign parties should avoid discussing the question of Taiwan’s independence publicly or straightforwardly since CCP still prioritizes retaking Taiwan despite never ruling it. 
  • The best option for Taiwan is to delay a showdown with China and hope there is a political culture revolution in China, although it is nearly impossible. 
  • A ray of hope for Taiwan is that the declining demography in China may affect China’s future fundamentally.
  1. Due to the significantly aging population, Beijing’s resources will be redirected away from the military to social security and health care in the coming years. 
  2. Fewer people will sustain China’s massive infrastructure projects, thus, burdening Beijing’s economy and finances.  
  3. The aging and expanding middle-class Chinese population may wish for peace and a more liberal political system. 
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