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The Diplomat: 越線—第四次台海危機的成因？ 

作者/Author(s): Olli Pekka Suorsa and Adrian Ang U-Jin 

原文來源/Source: The Diplomat 

日期/Date: 08/17/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Defense, Security 

摘要:

中國通過圍台軍演、侵入台灣防空識別區和越過台海中線、增加對台貿易禁運以及中止與美國有意義的雙邊交流來表達對佩洛西訪問台灣的不滿。當前的中美關係不僅僅是戰略競爭，而是一種安全困境，因為中國認為美國正在試圖重新定義「一中政策」並鞏固與台灣的關係。 

台海中線： 

  • 於 1955 年駐台美軍第十三航空特遣隊（Air Task Force 13 (Provisional)）時任司令Benjamin O. Davis Jr.   空軍准將設定，以劃定兩岸邊界並減少衝突升級的風險。 
  • 儘管沒有正式協議，但中國和台灣都嚴格遵守中線，只有在1999 年、2019 年和 2020 年有幾次例外。 
  • 解放軍持續增加侵略中線的次數使中華民國空軍陷入困境，儘管這純粹是騷擾，也並未真正危及台灣安全，但代表著衝突強度達到更高的等級。
成為新的常態? 
  • 佩洛西對台灣的訪問引發了解放軍前所未有的越過中線入侵行動，增加了中國與台灣之間誤判的風險。
  • 由於從台海中線到台北的距離和飛行時間較短，解放軍空軍可能會在短時間內就出現在台北上方，給台灣決策者和飛行員帶來壓力。 
  • 其入侵的模式會一直變化，包含夾雜從不同的地點穿越，以及不同數量或者不同型號的飛機。據推測，中國可能希望：
  1. 測試中華民國空軍對入侵的反應。 
  2. 破壞台海中線的現狀。 
  3. 表達其對台北和華盛頓的不滿， 雖然美國不想加劇兩岸緊張局勢，但若其繼續加強與台灣的關係，那可能會進一步激怒中國。
 
Summary: 
China shows its displeasure towards Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan by holding military drills surrounding Taiwan, incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and across the median line of Taiwan Strait, increased trade embargoes on Taiwan, and aborting meaningful bilateral exchanges with the US. The current China-US relations are not simply strategic competition but rather a security dilemma since China assumes the US is trying to redefine the “One China Policy” and consolidating ties with Taiwan.  

The Median Line: 
  • It was demarcated in 1955 by General Benamin Davis, Jr. of the US 13th Air Force to delineate cross-strait boundaries and reduce risks of conflict escalation. 
  • China and Taiwan strictly adhered to the median line despite the lack of formal agreement, with few exceptions in 1999, 2019, and two occasions in 2020.
  • The increased incursion across the median line will put ROC Air Force into dilemmas, signaling a new level of conflict intensity despite being pure harassment without truly endangering Taiwan’s security.
Towards a New Normal? 
  • Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan provoked unprecedented PLA incursion across the median line, increasing the risk of miscalculation between China and Taiwan. 
  • Due to proximity and short flight time from the median line to Taipei, PLA aircraft could show up in Taipei skies in a short time, pressuring Taiwan’s decision-makers and pilots. 
  • The pattern of incursion varied from time to time with crossing along different points and different numbers and types of aircraft. It is assumed that China: 
  1. Wish to test the ROC Air Force’s response to incursions. 
  2. Nullify the current status quo in the Taiwan Strait median line.
  3. Demonstrate its resentment towards Taipei and Washington, While the US does not want to escalate cross-strait tension, it has continued to bolster relations with Taiwan which may further infuriate China. 
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