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FP: 半導體之爭正在危害台灣

 

作者/Author(s): Frederik Kelter 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy  

日期/Date: 11/09/2022 

關鍵字/Keywords: Technology, Grand Strategy

摘要:

新的美中技術競爭旨在確保美國穩定獲得先進芯片並扼殺中國的進入。半導體對於經濟和軍事的技術進步至關重要，這解釋了為什麼冷戰風格的美國《CHIPS and Science Act》(俗稱晶片法案)可以阻止中國數十年的技術發展，特別是當中國在很大程度上依賴美國技術來實現先進微晶片的時候。然而，由於台積電是台灣和世界上最著名的半導體生產商，成為台灣、美國和中國的地緣政治利益，台灣被捲入了美中技術戰。 

 
夾縫中的台積電

  • 台積公司在全球半導體供應鏈中扮演至關重要的角色，因此也是中國控制台灣和美國保衛台灣的原因之一。台灣依賴台積電作為軍事衝突的盾牌。
  • 晶片法案通過將半導體轉移到美國，改善美國半導體產業，擺脫對台積電的依賴，但這使台灣處於更加弱勢的地位。 
  • 如果中國需要突破美國對其技術發展的束縛，它必須在台灣海峽之外尋找資源。 
 
台積電在國內面臨能源和水資源挑戰 
  • 儘管台積電迫於客戶壓力，承諾其到 2050 年將實現淨零排放，但台灣在實施可再生能源項目的發展推動上進展緩慢。
  • 台積電的淨水消耗量隨著其生產設施的擴大而增加。 
  1. 在台灣南部，台灣遭遇旱災，台積電不得不從該國其他地區運水到他們在台南的設施。 
  2. 台積電曾嘗試轉向海水淡化廠或水循環以獲得清潔水，但它們是能源密集型的，可能無法滿足台積電的需求。 
  3. 台灣缺水也對農業部門造成損害，更導致台灣必須從海外進口大量糧食。
對台灣的影響
  • 中國可以通過拒絕獲得能源和食品進口等方式來迫使台灣投降。 
  • 半導體產業也正在將台灣推向資源稀缺的境地，除非能夠徹底改變水的消耗和能源問題。 
  • 台灣還需要強大的軍事防禦和資源彈性來阻止和抵抗解放軍的入侵。 
  • 台灣對半導體產業堅定依賴，較少考慮長期經濟和安全後果，但這將損害台灣的資源彈性空間，也更容易受到中國的影響，特別是當中國試圖確保其半導體未來時。 

Summary: 
The renewed U.S.-China technology rivalry aims to secure the U.S.’s stable access to advanced chips and to choke China’s access. Semiconductors are crucial for technological advancement in the economy and military, which explains why the Cold War-styled U.S.’s CHIPS and Science Act can forestall China’s technology development for decades, mainly when China depended much on U.S. technology for advanced microchips. However, Taiwan was caught in the U.S.-China technology war since TSMC, the most prominent semiconductor producer in Taiwan and the world, became a geopolitical interest for Taiwan, the U.S., and China. 

TSMC in the middle 
  • TSMC’s crucial role in the global semiconductor supply chain is a reason for China to control Taiwan and the U.S. to defend it. Taiwan relied on TSMC as a shield against military conflict. 
  • The CHIPS and Science Act improves the semiconductor industry in the U.S. by shifting semiconductors into the U.S., moving away from the reliance on TSMC and, thus, putting Taiwan into a vulnerable position. 
  • If China needs to break through U.S.’s strangulation for its technological development, it must look for sources outside the Taiwan Strait. 

TSMC’s energy and water challenges on the home front
  • Although TSMC is committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 due to pressure from its customers, Taiwan is a laggard in implementing renewable energy projects. 
  • TSMC’s clean water consumption increased as its production facilities expanded.  
  1. In southern Taiwan, Taiwan was hit with drought, and TSMC had to transport water from other parts of the country to their facilities in Tainan. 
  2. TSMC tried to shift to desalination plants or water recycling for clean water, but they are energy-intensive and may not meet TSMC’s demand. 
  3. The lack of water in Taiwan also caused damage to the agricultural sector, resulting in high food imports from overseas. 
Implications for Taiwan 
  • China can force Taiwan to surrender by denying its access to energy and food imports.
  • The semiconductor industry is also pushing Taiwan into resource scarcity unless radical changes can be made to water consumption and energy. 
  • Taiwan also needs a strong military defense and resource resilience to impede and resist PLA’s invasion. 
  • Taiwan’s firm reliance on the semiconductor industry without considering long-term economic and security consequences will damage Taiwan’s resilience and make it more vulnerable to China’s, especially when China is trying to secure its semiconductor future. 

 
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