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War on the Rocks: 烏克蘭的夢想可能是台灣的噩夢

作者/Author(s): Michael Spirtas 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: October 28, 2022 

主題/Key Topics : Military 

摘要:

烏克蘭對俄羅斯的出色反擊給台灣帶來了威懾中國侵略的希望之光。然而，在台灣及其合作夥伴密切關注俄烏戰爭以吸取適當教訓的同時，中國力求避免俄羅斯在同一場戰爭中的災難性失敗。儘管兩棲入侵台灣具有挑戰性，而且解放軍最近也沒有進行重大戰鬥行動，但美國和台灣必須以明確和有針對性的戰略緊急提高防禦能力。 

時不時地援助台灣 

  • 通過增加軍售和援助來發展和部署防禦等方式在短期內持續投資台灣防衛，尤其是在台灣仍處於和平時期的時候。 
  • 由於中國隨時可以決定入侵台灣，而台灣的後勤補給資源充滿重重挑戰，台灣必須從現在開始在美國的幫助下儲備關鍵物資和彈藥。 
台灣自救 
  • 聚焦於「整體防衛構想」，大量投資於簡單的武器系統，並讓台灣人為普通百姓參與抵抗做好準備。 
  • 台灣的國防預算高於烏克蘭，但台灣對解放軍可能帶來的各種威脅的準備不足。 
  • 由於從基於徵兵的模式向專業部隊的過渡，懷疑論者懷疑預備役訓練的充分性和組織混亂的軍事結構。 
  • 台灣及其盟國必須準備好應對中國的各種脅迫手段（軍事、經濟和外交）和入侵方式（封鎖、飛彈轟炸等）
不確定的因素 
  • 中國正在提高解放軍入侵台灣的兩棲能力，但他們必須進行城鎮戰和反叛亂。
  • 台灣和中國正在從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取不同的教訓，但可能找不到正確的經驗。 
  • 如果中國將威脅升級成核程度，美國可能會陷入是否在軍事上援助台灣的兩難境地。 
Summary:
Ukraine’s remarkable fightback against Russia gives Taiwan a light of hope in deterring Chinese aggression. However, while Taiwan and its partners are watching the Russo-Ukrainian War closely to derive suitable lessons, China seeks to avoid the catastrophic failures of Russia in the same war. Although an amphibious invasion of Taiwan is challenging, and the PLA has not engaged in major battles recently, the U.S. and Taiwan must increase their defensive capabilities urgently with a clear and focused strategy. 

Assisting Taiwan now and then 
  • Invest in Taiwan’s defense now and soon by increasing arms sales and assistance to develop and deploy defenses, especially when Taiwan is still in peacetime. 
  • Since China can decide to invade Taiwan anytime, and resupplying Taiwan will be challenging, Taiwan must stockpile critical supplies and ammunition with the help of the U.S. starting now. 
Taiwan’s self-help 
  • Focus on the ODC, invest largely in simple weapon systems, and prepare the Taiwanese for civilian resistance. 
  • Taiwan has a higher military budget than Ukraine, but Taiwan is less prepared against various threats that PLA could present. 
  • Skeptics doubted the adequacy of reservist training and the disorganized military structure due to the transition from a conscription-based model to a professional force. 
  • Taiwan and its allies must prepare against various means of Chinese coercion (military, economic, and diplomatic) and invasion modus operandi (blockade, missile bombardment, etc.). 
Uncertainties 
  • China is improving PLA’s amphibious capabilities for the Taiwan invasion, but they must engage in urban warfare and counterinsurgency. 
  • Taiwan and China are learning different lessons from the Ukraine war but may not discover the right ones. 
  • The U.S. may be in a dilemma whether to assist Taiwan militarily if China threatens nuclear escalation. 
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