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FP: 台海戰爭還不到不可避免之程度

 

作者/Author(s): Michael Mazza 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/06/2022 

主題/Key Topics :  Foreign Policy, Grand Strategy, Conflict Resolution 


摘要：
佩洛西 8 月訪問台灣後，中國對台灣的侵略加劇，而這引起了國際社會對台灣是否不可避免被入侵之命運感到擔憂。
刀尖上的和平？
  •  中國將對台灣與其西方夥伴之間的任何外交互動進行報復，這會限制北京和台北之間任何有成效的接觸。儘管北京不斷強調軍事選擇仍在討論中，但它沒有對台灣或美國使用直接的軍事對抗。 
  •  儘管習近平將統一台灣作為其遺產的核心，但如今的台灣人越來越拒絕與中國統一，更糟糕的是，更多的台灣人傾向於事實上的獨立而不是維持現狀。 
  • 當前的美中台關係是過去冷戰的遺產。然而，美國和中國不再是共同的敵人，台灣演變成一個充滿活力的民主國家，中國現在擁有在東亞挑戰美國的軍事能力。美國意識到他們正在與中國進行長期競爭，以阻礙中共的戰略野心，危害東亞和平。 
  • 中國幾乎不可能放棄統一台灣的目標，美國也幾乎不可能將台灣交給北京，因為這與美國及其盟國的戰略考量相矛盾。
如何前進？
  •  華盛頓和台北決不能抹黑中國的強制統一威脅。 
  1. ​​​​​​​台灣必須提高防禦能力，與美國密切配合。 
  2.  美國必須表現出對台灣防禦的承諾，並提高其對中國的作戰能力。 
  • 減輕北京對分離主義的擔憂
  1. ​​​​​​​雖然美台之間的高層對話會加深北京對台灣獨立的恐懼，但它也是一個解決中國焦慮的平台。 
  2. 美國和台灣必須公開譴責任何形式的台灣獨立。雖然這對台灣不公平，但為了確保美國的安全保障，這是必要的犧牲。 ​​​​​​​
  • 給中國以胡蘿蔔，而不是棒子 
  1. 美國應避免利用敏感的台灣問題來刺激中國，防止自己挑釁習近平或其繼任者將台灣留在自己的道路上。 
  2. 衝突的緩和將剝奪中共的強製手段，中共可能會軟化其在台灣問題上的立場。這樣就可以通過對話來建設性地解決台灣問題。 
 
Summary: 
After Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, China’s increased aggression over the island drew international concerns about whether a Taiwan invasion is inevitable. 

Peace on a knife’s edge? 
  • China will retaliate against any foreign interactions between Taiwan and its Western partners, which limits any productive engagement between Beijing and Taipei. While Beijing constantly emphasizes that military options are still on the table, it stopped short of using direct military confrontation against Taiwan or the US.  
  • Although Xi Jinping made Taiwan unification a core of his legacy, the Taiwanese nowadays increasingly refuse unification with China, and to make matters worse, more Taiwanese favor de facto independence over maintaining the status quo. 
  • The current US-China-Taiwan relationship is a legacy of the Cold War which worked in the past. However, the US and China no longer share a common enemy, Taiwan evolved into a vibrant democracy, and China now has the military capability to challenge the US in East Asia. The US realized they were in a long-term rivalry with China to hamper CCP’s strategic ambitions, jeopardizing peace in East Asia. 
  • It is almost impossible for China to abandon its Taiwan unification aim and for the US to surrender Taiwan to Beijing since it contradicts the strategic calculus of the US and its allies. 
How to move forward? 
  • Washington and Taipei must not discredit China’s forced unification threat.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Taiwan must improve its defense capabilities and coordinate closely with the US.  
  2. The US must show its commitment to Taiwan’s defense and improve its warfighting capacity over China. ​​​​​​​
  • Alleviate Beijing’s concern of separatism. ​​​​​​​
  1. Although high-level dialogues between the US and Taiwan can deepen Beijing’s fear of Taiwan’s independence, it is also a platform to address Chinese anxiety. 
  2. The US and Taiwan must publicly denounce any formalization of Taiwan’s independence. Although it is unfair to Taiwan, it is a necessary sacrifice to ensure US’s security guarantee. ​​​​​​​
  • Give China carrots, not sticks ​​​​​​​
  1. The US should avoid using the sensitive Taiwan issue to prickle China and prevent itself from provocating Xi or his successors in keeping Taiwan within its orbit. 
  2. Conflict de-escalation will deprive CCP’s coercive means, and CCP may soften its stance on the Taiwan issue. This allows a dialogue for constructive resolution of the Taiwan issue. 
 
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