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 FA: 如何避免台灣發生戰爭。 第二部分：避免戰爭  

作者/Author(s): Thomas J. Christensen, M. Taylor Fravel, Bonnie S. Glaser, Andrew J. Nathan, Jessica Chen Weiss 
原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 
日期/Date: 10/13/2022 
主題/Key Topics :  Military, Strategy, Deterrence, Diplomacy 

摘要： 
隨著兩岸關係和美中關係的惡化，美國、台灣和中國把自己推入了一個充滿不確定性的兔子洞。不過，台海危機還是有可能避免的。 
美國 
  • 美國需要依靠較小的、分散的、有彈性的、中國難以攻擊的力量來增加其在東亞的軍事存在。 
  • 美國需要警告其地區盟友有關台海衝突的危險性，因此盟友應協助美國遏制此類事件。 
  • 美國可以從盟友那邊尋求其軍隊的定位查看權限，並與合作夥伴計劃，在中國入侵台灣的情況下進行協調的軍事反應。 
  • 美國及其最親密的伙伴需要警告中國，如果它入侵台灣，將會造成可怕的經濟和外交後果。 

台灣 
  • 台灣必須通過擴大供應儲備和儲存彈藥來展示其對中國封鎖的韌性。 
  • 台灣必須證明它有能力阻止敵人入侵，把自己變成一隻有堅實防禦能力的豪豬，以抵禦入侵者。 
  • 台灣可以訓練平民協助台灣防禦或在被封鎖期間分發物資。

向北京保證 
  • 美國需要向台北和北京保證，它尋求的是和平穩定的台海，而不是台灣獨立或任何強制改變現狀的行動。 
  • 美國官員和政界人士必須避免將台灣視為一個獨立國家，或給中國和台灣人任何台灣可以單方面決定其地位的印象。 
  • 美國可以主張將台灣納入不要求台灣成為獨立國家的國際組織。 
  • 美方應鼓勵中國與台灣民選領導人直接討論，尋求讓台灣人滿意的兩岸分歧解決方案。 
 
Summary:
With deteriorating cross-strait and US-China relations, the US, Taiwan, and China pushed themselves into a rabbit hole full of uncertainty. However, it is still possible to avert a crisis in Taiwan Strait.
 
The US
  • The US needs to increase its military presence in East Asia by relying on smaller, dispersed, and resilient forces that are hard for China to assault.
  • The US needs to caution its regional allies on the dangers of a Taiwan Strait conflict and, therefore, should assist the US in deterring such incidents.
  • The US can seek locational access from its allies for its military and plan a coordinated military response with its partners in case China invades Taiwan.
  • The US and its closest partners need to warn China of the dire economic and diplomatic consequences if it invades Taiwan.
Taiwan
  • Taiwan must show its resilience against China’s blockade by expanding its supply reserves and stockpiling munitions.
  • Taiwan must demonstrate its ability to deter an invasion by turning itself into a porcupine armed with solid defenses against invaders.
  • Taiwan can train civilians to assist in Taiwan’s defense or distribute supplies during a blockade.
Assuring Beijing
  • The US needs to assure both Taipei and Beijing that it seeks a peaceful and stable Taiwan Strait instead of an independent Taiwan or any forced changes in the status quo.
  • US officials and politicians must refrain from addressing Taiwan as an independent country or giving the Chinese and Taiwanese any impression that Taiwan can unilaterally decide its status.
  • The US can advocate Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations that do not require Taiwan to be an independent country.
  • The US should encourage China to discuss directly with Taiwan’s democratically elected leader and seek resolutions for cross-strait differences that can satisfy the Taiwanese.
  • US politicians must avoid unnecessary symbolic political gestures that can infuriate Beijing.
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