編輯器
FA:如何避免台灣發生戰爭。 第一部分：威懾失敗
作者/Author(s): Thomas J. Christensen, M. Taylor Fravel, Bonnie S. Glaser, Andrew J. Nathan, Jessica Chen Weiss
原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 10/13/2022
主題/Key Topics : Military, Strategy, Deterrence, Diplomacy
摘要：
根據Thomas Schelling 的觀點，威懾既需要可信的威脅，也需要可信的保證。儘管台灣和美國的共同目標是阻止中國入侵台灣以維護台海和平，但他們自 2022 年初以來的行動大多是不必要的，只會激怒中國，並為已經惡化的兩岸關係加油添醋。如果台灣、中國和美國的目標是避免台海戰爭，他們必須在確保彼此國家利益的同時避免越過紅線。
作者/Author(s): Thomas J. Christensen, M. Taylor Fravel, Bonnie S. Glaser, Andrew J. Nathan, Jessica Chen Weiss
原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 10/13/2022
主題/Key Topics : Military, Strategy, Deterrence, Diplomacy
摘要：
根據Thomas Schelling 的觀點，威懾既需要可信的威脅，也需要可信的保證。儘管台灣和美國的共同目標是阻止中國入侵台灣以維護台海和平，但他們自 2022 年初以來的行動大多是不必要的，只會激怒中國，並為已經惡化的兩岸關係加油添醋。如果台灣、中國和美國的目標是避免台海戰爭，他們必須在確保彼此國家利益的同時避免越過紅線。
台灣：威脅不大，但政治上沒有保障
- 在中國入侵的情況下，台灣缺乏軍事優勢，只能靠自己的力量堅持幾個星期。
- 儘管大多數台灣人支持維持現狀的政策，但他們越來越認同自己只是台灣人。
- 民進黨斷言台灣已經是一個獨立的國家，而蔡英文總統並沒有向北京保證台灣會停止追求法律上的獨立。
- 國民黨不再尋求與中國大陸統一，並試圖維持台灣事實上的自治以緩和兩岸緊張局勢。
- 如果台灣敢於宣布獨立，中國就會不斷在軍事和經濟上威脅台灣。
- 如果美國對台海危機進行軍事干預，中國可能會讓美國付出高昂的代價。
- 中國在其統一計劃中，沒有限制只使用強制脅迫手段或與台灣建立友好關係。相反，中國一再強調，如果和平手段失敗，其將使用軍事手段統一台灣。
美國：薄弱的威脅和保證
- 在解放軍進行現代化建設後，美國在軍事上不再對中國構成可信的威脅。然而，美國在經濟制裁方面仍有優勢。
- 雖然美國不斷堅持 「一個中國 」政策，但華盛頓對台灣表現出越來越多的支持，無法讓北京放心。
Summary:
According to Thomas Schelling, deterrence requires both credible threats and credible assurances. Although Taiwan and the US share the same aim of deterring China from invading Taiwan to maintain a peaceful Taiwan Strait, their actions since early 2022, mostly unnecessary, only provoked China’s wrath and added fuel to the already deteriorating cross-strait relations. If Taiwan, China, and the US aim to avoid a war in the Taiwan Strait, they must refrain from crossing their redlines while assuring each other’s national interests.
According to Thomas Schelling, deterrence requires both credible threats and credible assurances. Although Taiwan and the US share the same aim of deterring China from invading Taiwan to maintain a peaceful Taiwan Strait, their actions since early 2022, mostly unnecessary, only provoked China’s wrath and added fuel to the already deteriorating cross-strait relations. If Taiwan, China, and the US aim to avoid a war in the Taiwan Strait, they must refrain from crossing their redlines while assuring each other’s national interests.
Taiwan: Weak threat, politically non-assuring
- In case of a Chinese invasion, Taiwan lacks the military edge and can only hold on for a few weeks on its own.
- Although most Taiwanese support policies that maintain the status quo, they increasingly identify themselves as solely Taiwanese.
- DPP asserted Taiwan is already an independent country, and President Tsai Ing-Wen did not assure Beijing Taiwan would stop pursuing de jure independence.
- KMT no longer sought reunification with mainland China and tried to preserve Taiwan’s de facto autonomy to lower cross-strait tensions.
China: Intimidating without strong assurance
- China constantly threatens Taiwan militarily and economically if Taiwan dares to declare independence.
- China can incur a high cost to the US if the US intervenes militarily in a Taiwan Strait crisis.
- China did not restrain from using coercive means or rapport with Taiwan in reunification plans. Instead, China repeatedly stressed using military options to reunify Taiwan if peaceful means failed.
The US: Weak threat and assurance
- The US no longer poses a credible threat to China militarily after the PLA underwent modernization. However, the US still has the advantage in economic sanctions.
- While the US constantly adhered to the “one China” policy, Washington did not assure Beijing by showing increasing support for Taiwan.