編輯器
War on the War on the Rocks:來自1944年戰爭計劃的啟示有助於解釋為什麼入侵台灣是一場昂貴的賭博
摘要:
解放軍在審視了未實現的「堤路行動」(Operation CAUSEWAY)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Causeway) 後，可能會發現入侵台灣是一項艱鉅的任務。美國軍事戰略家在 1944 年策劃了「堤路行動」，其內涵是入侵台灣以將台灣從日本的控制中解放出來，將台灣作為進攻日本的前沿基地，並支持中國的戰爭行動，切斷日本的交通線。然而，美國領導人在分析了聯合強行進入行動的挑戰和高昂成本後，最終放棄了此一計劃。儘管解放軍的軍事實力超過台灣，但行動過程中潛在的困難將阻礙中國的目標。
Summary:
The PLA may find the Taiwan invasion a daunting task after examining the unmaterialized Operation Causeway. US military strategists planned Operation Causeway in 1944, an invasion of Taiwan to liberate Taiwan from Japanese control, use Taiwan as a forward base for attacking Japan, support war efforts in China, and sever Japan’s lines of communication. However, US leaders eventually abandoned the plan after analyzing the challenges and high cost of joint forcible entry operations. Although the PLA outnumbers Taiwan in military strength, the underlying difficulties will hamper China’s aim.
作者/Author(s): Benjamin Jensen
原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks
日期/Date: September 8, 2022
主題/Key Topics : Defense
摘要:
解放軍在審視了未實現的「堤路行動」(Operation CAUSEWAY)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Causeway) 後，可能會發現入侵台灣是一項艱鉅的任務。美國軍事戰略家在 1944 年策劃了「堤路行動」，其內涵是入侵台灣以將台灣從日本的控制中解放出來，將台灣作為進攻日本的前沿基地，並支持中國的戰爭行動，切斷日本的交通線。然而，美國領導人在分析了聯合強行進入行動的挑戰和高昂成本後，最終放棄了此一計劃。儘管解放軍的軍事實力超過台灣，但行動過程中潛在的困難將阻礙中國的目標。
第一個挑戰：孤立台灣
- 侵略者必須在開始兩棲攻擊之前將台灣與任何潛在的支持隔離開來，以確保一個立足點，並按照戰爭計劃推進，實現目標。
- 中國可能會用火箭軍和空軍孤立台灣，減輕海軍的負擔，但這將需要許多飛機和機動火箭發射架。
- 中國在支持空襲和轟炸行動方面將面臨後勤問題。海軍很容易受到反艦巡弋飛彈的攻擊。因此，北京遭受的損失將使其陷入是否繼續入侵的兩難境地。
- 如果解放軍事先大規模調集物資和部隊，中國的入侵計劃就會被發現，使台灣及其夥伴能夠做好準備，阻止解放軍的前進。
第二個挑戰：防禦者的意志
- 雖然解放軍的軍事實力相對較高，但台灣憑藉其先進的海空防禦和意志堅強的軍事人員、預備役人員和人口，可以阻止解放軍的兩棲攻擊。
第三個挑戰：地理環境
- 解放軍在進軍台北之前，必須確保港口作為立足點，但合適的港口選擇有限。
- 台灣可以破壞港口或在通往台北的路線上設置堅決的防禦措施，以延遲或阻止入侵部隊。
- 北京無法掩飾入侵台灣所需的高損耗，引起了公眾的強烈反對。
Summary:
The PLA may find the Taiwan invasion a daunting task after examining the unmaterialized Operation Causeway. US military strategists planned Operation Causeway in 1944, an invasion of Taiwan to liberate Taiwan from Japanese control, use Taiwan as a forward base for attacking Japan, support war efforts in China, and sever Japan’s lines of communication. However, US leaders eventually abandoned the plan after analyzing the challenges and high cost of joint forcible entry operations. Although the PLA outnumbers Taiwan in military strength, the underlying difficulties will hamper China’s aim.
First Challenge: Isolating Taiwan
- Invaders must isolate Taiwan from any potential support before commencing amphibious assaults to secure a foothold and advance with the war plan to achieve the objectives.
- China may isolate Taiwan with its rocket and air force, taking the burden off the navy, but it will take many aircraft and mobile rocket launchers.
- China will face logistical issues in supporting airstrike and bombardment operations. The navy is susceptible to anti-ship cruise missiles. Consequently, the loss incurred on Beijing will put it in a dilemma whether to proceed with the invasion.
- China’s invasion plan will be discovered if the PLA mobilizes supplies and forces beforehand at a large scale, allowing Taiwan and its partners to prepare and deter PLA’s advance.
Second Challenge: The will of defenders
- Although the PLA has a relatively higher military strength, Taiwan can impede PLA’s amphibious attacks with its advanced air and coastal defenses and strong-willed military personnel, reservists, and population.
Third Challenge: Geography
- The PLA must secure ports as footholds before advancing to Taipei, but there are limited choices of suitable ports.
- Taiwan can sabotage the ports or mount resolute defenses along the routes to Taipei to delay or stop invasion forces.
- Beijing cannot hide the high attrition from Taiwan’s invasion, drawing a public backlash.