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RAND: 俄烏戰爭激勵台灣更努力地保護自己的未來

作者/Author(s): Derek Grossman 

原文來源/Source: RAND Corporation 蘭德公司 

日期/Date: 05/13/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Defense 

摘要:

台灣外交部長吳釗燮在觀察了烏克蘭對俄羅斯的抵抗後,強調了對台灣戰略規劃至關重要的兩個方面。然而,台灣需要解決好幾個政策缺陷,才能達成更加全面的戰略。 
 

針對大型敵人的不對稱作戰:

  • 國防部發布了一份指南,詳細說明了戰爭期間的各種危機應對措施。它的重點是尋找住所和生存技能,但沒有組織平民抵抗的指導說明。因此,更深入的軍民融合將是必要的。
  • 台灣需要修改整體防禦概念,該概念旨在利用台灣的地理優勢,在家門口消滅入侵者。然而,台灣應該通過獲得更多便宜和有效的防禦設備,如水雷、反艦和反空飛彈來阻止台灣海峽的入侵。
不惜一切代價保衛國家的意願:
  • 國防部和立法者建議將徵兵時間從4個月延長到1年,並包括所有性別。但是,國防部全民防衛動員署需要引入更全面的預備役人員培訓,並將其培訓與台灣其他部門整合。 
  • 儘管雙方擁有軍售和國防承諾,但美國並沒有向烏克蘭提供直接軍事援助,所以大多數台灣人並不相信美國會在中國入侵台灣時向台灣提供軍事援助。 
  • 有人呼籲美國應結束其戰略模糊性,明確表明美國對台灣的承諾。然而,台灣需要凝聚力量進行自衛,因為美國不太可能轉變為戰略清晰化 
採購戰略武器:
  • 台灣沒有可以威懾中國的戰略武器,所以台灣需要尋求更多的戰略武器,但這也可能違背美國的不擴散原則 
  • 而且由於兩岸關係正在迅速衰落,美國更需要澄清其在台灣的立場和承諾 
 
Summary:  
Taiwanese Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, highlights two aspects crucial for Taiwan’s strategic planning after observing the Ukrainian resistance against Russia. However, Taiwan need to address some policy flaws to achieve a comprehensive strategy. 

Asymmetric warfare against a large enemy 
  • The Ministry of Defense issued a guidebook detailing various crisis response during war. It is focused in looking for shelter and survival skills, but there is no guidance in organizing civilian resistance. Thus, a deeper civil-military integration is needed. 
  • Taiwan needs revise the Overall Defense Concept, which seeks to eliminate invaders at Taiwan’s doorstep by using Taiwan’s geographical advantage. However, Taiwan should stop the invasion at Taiwan Strait by obtaining more cheap and effective defensive equipment such as sea mines, anti-ship and anti-air missiles. 
The will to protect the country at all costs 
  • The Ministry of Defense and legislators suggested an extension of conscription from four months to one year and including all-genders. However, the All-out Defense Mobilization Agency needs to introduce more comprehensive reservist training and integrate its training with other Taiwan ministries. 
  • Despite arms sales and defense pledges, most Taiwanese do not believe the US will provide military aid to Taiwan if China decides to invade due to the reluctance of the US to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine. 
  • There are calls to end US’s strategic ambiguity to indicate the US’s commitment to Taiwan clearly. However, Taiwan needs to muster strength for self-defense since it is unlikely the US will shift to strategic clarity. 
Procurement of strategic weapons 
  • Taiwan does not have strategic weapons that can deter China. Taiwan sought to obtain strategic arsenals but it may go against US’s principle of non-proliferation. 
  • The US needs to clarify its stance and commitment in Taiwan since cross-strait relations are decaying fast.