編輯器

FA:中國從俄烏戰爭中學到什麼?

作者/Author(s): David Sacks 

原文來源/Source: 《外交事務》 Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date:05/16/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Foreign Policy, Economic, Military 
 

摘要:


俄烏事件讓我們洞察到軍事干預的代價，也讓中國可以仔細檢視俄羅斯所犯的錯誤並修改其作戰規劃。習近平堅定地認為當前的戰略環境對其不利，這意味著中國必須提高解放軍奪回台灣的能力。 

  • 外交政策：中國將密切關注西方聯盟的凝聚力和美國衰落的跡象。由於台灣對外嚴重缺乏正式的外交關係，中國預期，台灣獲得的支持會比烏克蘭要少。
  • 經濟：中國可以利用其經濟和供應鏈的優勢，增加其他國家對中國的依賴，同時在資源和金融體系中尋求自給自足之戰略，以阻撓他國對中國使用制裁手段之可能性，同時也減少制裁手段對中國帶來的影響。 
  • 軍事/國防：解放軍可以利用核威脅作為威懾，特別是在後勤補給和聯合作戰等方面，隨機應變其入侵台灣的計劃，以提高作戰效率。 
  • 其他：北京政府還可以探索非動能作戰等方式，提前消滅台灣主要的政治和軍事領導人，打擊台灣人的士氣，從中阻撓指揮鍊和控制，通過傳播假訊息等方式，製造台灣社會的分裂，並切斷台灣對外的訊息流通。 

Summary: 

The events in Ukraine provide an insight into the cost of military intervention, allowing China to scrutinize Russia's mistakes and revamp its plans. Xi is adamant that the current strategic environment is hostile against it, meaning China will improvise PLA’s capability to retake Taiwan.

  •  Foreign Policy: China will monitor the cohesion of the Western alliance and signs of US decline. Along with Taiwan’s lack of formal diplomatic relations and high global economic interdependence on China, China expects less support for Taiwan than Ukraine. 
  • Economic: China can utilize its economic and supply chain dominance and increase the dependency of other countries on it. China will also seek self-reliant strategies in resources and financial systems to deter the use of sanctions while cushioning its impacts.  
  • Military/Defense: The PLA can use nuclear threats as deterrence and improvise its invasion plans, especially in logistics and joint operations, to increase its effectiveness.  
  • Others: The Beijing government can also explore the use of non-kinetic warfare by eliminating key Taiwan's political and military leaders early to demoralize Taiwanese and obstruct command and control attempts, creating divisions within the Taiwanese society by spreading disinformation and disconnecting information flow out of Taiwan.  

 

For the summary of this article on Taiwan:  

For the summary of this article on the US:  

回上層