CSIS-烏克蘭危機對美國印太政策的影響

作者/Author(s): Bonny Li 

原文來源/Source: 戰略與國際研究中心 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 

日期/Date: 05/19/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Economic, Military

摘要:

在烏克蘭危機中，中國展現出其中立立場，但不支持美國或西方。 

 

中國從烏克蘭危機中學到甚麼： 

• 由於美國及其盟友在印度-太平洋地區的軍事活動以及對台灣的支持增加，中國面臨著一個更加動蕩的外部環境。美國的行動是對中國的一種警告，但也可能引發未來的衝突。 
• 西方國家不能同情俄羅斯在國家安全上的考量，以及台灣問題的敏感性，兩者暗示著美國將像對待俄羅斯一樣對待中國，從而促使北京將俄羅斯結盟成為緊密的夥伴關係。
• 中國應該在糧食、能源、技術、金融基礎設施和供應鏈方面更加自力更生，同時增加其他國家對中國的經濟依賴性。這些動作將使他國對中國更加難以實施制裁，或對制裁國產生反作用。 
• 中國正在檢視俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動，並認為解放軍目前的現代化建設、投資和目標暫時是足夠的。除了動能作戰，中國可能會加入有效的政治戰和資訊戰，使其統一目標更加高效，並將採取閃電戰來實現其統一行動。其中，中國的核武器效用仍是一個值得觀察的案例。 

Summary: 

China showed a neutral stance amid the Ukrainian crisis but was unsupportive of the US or the West. 

What China learned from Ukraine: 

• China faces a more volatile external environment emanated from the US and its allies' military activities in the Indo Pacific region and increased support for Taiwan. US's actions serve as a warning for China but may provoke future conflict.  
• The inability of the West to sympathize with Russia's security concerns and intolerance in the Taiwan issue implies the US will treat China the same as Russia, pushing Beijing to stand by Russia as a close partner.  
• China should be more self-reliant in food, energy, technology, finance infrastructure, and supply chain while increasing other countries' economic dependence on China to make sanctions hard to implement or backfire against the sanctioning countries.  
• China is examining Russia’s operation in Ukraine and thinks PLA's current modernization, investments, and goals are sufficient momentarily. However, the use of non-kinetic operations needs to be explored. China may include effective political and information warfare to make its reunification aims more effective and will resort to a blitzkrieg strategy for reunification. China's utility of nuclear weapons is still worth observing.  

What the US can do: