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AEI:普丁在烏克蘭的掙扎可能鼓勵習近平在面對台灣問題時更有膽量

圖/俄羅斯總統普丁。 President of Russia官網 

作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

原文來源/Source: 美國公共政策企業研究院 American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) 

日期/Date: 04/21/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Military 摘要:
 

普丁入侵烏克蘭的行動遭到頑強的抵抗,導致他的計畫接連挫敗。如果習近平統一台灣的野心持續強大,那莫斯科在侵略行動上犯的錯誤對於習近平來說極其寶貴。在這個方 面,中國可以決定其行動的快慢。 

 

放慢行動

  • 要征服一個為生存而奮鬥之國家的難度極高,這也代表著緩慢的戰術是無效的。 
  • 一個專制的軍隊是無法有效執行現在戰爭的複雜任務,特別是當解放軍已經超過40年沒有參與重大衝突事件。 
  • 美國在情報方面的有效性更將削弱任何侵略計劃的戰略突襲。 


快速行動

  • 中國可以利用其巨大的市場力量使制裁失效。
  • 中國可以透過協同攻擊(網絡、飛彈、暗殺和顛覆政權)控制戰爭初期,然後在台灣獲得任何支持之前用毀滅性的武力削弱台灣的抵抗力。 


普丁在烏克蘭面臨的困難讓習近平在入侵台灣問題上同樣面臨進退兩難,他必須重新評估解放軍的能力。 但是,如果習近平決定強迫台灣統一,他應採取更有說服力的方法。 

Summary:

Putin’s invasion plan in Ukraine was met with strong resistance, foiling his plans. If Xi Jinping’s ambition to reunite Taiwan remains strong, Moscow’s mistakes are undoubtedly valuable for China. In this regard, China has the option to go fast or go slow.  

  

Going Slow 

  • A country fighting for national survival is harder to conquer, meaning slower tactics are ineffective. 
  • An autocratic military cannot effectively execute complex tasks associated with contemporary warfare, especially when PLA has not engaged in significant conflict for over 40 years. 
  • The effectiveness of US intelligence will cripple any strategic surprise for aggressive plans.

Going Fast

  • China can leverage its enormous market power to make sanctions ineffective. 
  • China can control the war in its early stages through coordinated attacks (cyber, missile, assassination and subversions) followed by devastating force to cripple Taiwan’s resistance before Taiwan can garner any support.

The difficulties that Putin faces in Ukraine put Xi in a dilemma on invading Taiwan, making a reevaluation of PLA's capability a must.  However, Xi will resort to a more conclusive approach in case he decides to force Taiwan reunification.