作者/Author(s): Stephen Biddle 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 01/29/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、國防 

摘要:

許多專家希望,在西方國家於 2023 年夏季提供更多裝備和培訓後,烏克蘭的反攻能夠取得成功。然而,烏克蘭在陸地戰爭中取得的突破有限,缺乏實質性進展。雖然烏克蘭在技術上可以準備得更充分,但俄羅斯的縱深防禦阻礙了烏克蘭的進攻推進。 

  • 許多人指責西方國家沒有快速提供足夠的裝備,但技術和裝備數量並不是陸戰中決定勝負的關鍵 
  1. 提供給烏克蘭的46歲F-16戰機在俄羅斯先進的防空系統面前不堪一擊。
  2. ATACMS可以打擊更深層次的目標,但俄羅斯改變了其供應節點以限制武器的射程,並使用GPS干擾來阻止飛彈
  3. 西方向烏克蘭提供了許多M1艾布蘭主戰坦克豹2型戰車。然而,由於烏克蘭缺乏聯合武器協調,這些坦克在俄羅斯的攻擊下不堪一擊,難以為繼。 
  4. 雖然烏克蘭進行了軍事革命,但並未提高部隊的殺傷力 
  5. 烏克蘭軍隊的訓練時間很短,這限制了其進行現代戰爭、有效利用資產的作戰能力
  • ​​​​​​​即使烏克蘭擁有足夠的現代裝備和訓練有素的軍隊,想要突破堅固的防禦仍然極具挑戰性 
  1. 一些進攻突破是因為出色的進攻技能和對手準備、動機或後勤不足所造成的
  2. 雖然俄羅斯人在 2022 年表現糟糕,但他們吸取了教訓,採用了更為傳統的縱深防禦戰術 
  • 俄羅斯堅韌而準備充分的防守使得烏克蘭難以迅速取得任何決定性突破。烏克蘭已經要求更多援助,但這的幫助也很有限。烏克蘭和西方必須保持耐心,為一場曠日費時的戰爭做好準備。 
Summary: 
Many experts hoped Ukraine's counter-offensive would succeed after the West provided more equipment and training in the summer of 2023. Yet, Ukraine only had limited success with a lack of breakthroughs in land warfare. Although Ukraine may be more technologically prepared, Russia's deep defense impedes Ukraine's offensive advance. 
  • Many blamed the West for not providing sufficient equipment fast enough, but technology and number of equipment are rarely decisive in land warfare. 
  1. The 46-year-old F-16s given to Ukraine are vulnerable to Russia's advanced air defenses. 
  2. ATACMS can strike deeper targets, but Russia revamped its supply nodes to limit the weapons' reach and used GPS jamming to stop the missiles. 
  3. The West gave Ukraine many Abrams tanks and Leopard 2 tanks. However, Ukraine's lack of combined arms coordination makes those tanks vulnerable to Russian attacks and unsustainable. 
  4. Although Ukraine revolutionized its military, it did not improve the lethality of its forces. 
  5. The Ukrainian army's short training time limits its warfighting ability to fight a modern battle and use its assets effectively. 
  • Even if Ukraine had sufficient modern equipment and well-trained forces, breaking through a well-fortified defense is still highly challenging. ​​​​​​​
  1. Some offensive breakthroughs happen due a combination of good offensive skilll and a permissive environment caused by opponent's lack of preparation, motivation, or logistics.
  2. Although the Russians performed badly in 2022, they learned from their mistakes and used a more traditional deep defense tactic. 
  • Russia's resilient and prepared defense makes it difficult for Ukraine to achieve any decisive breakthrough soon. Ukraine has asked for more aid, but it would only help a little. Thus, Ukraine and the West must be patient and prepare for a protracted and difficult war.