作者/Author(s): Alexandra Prokopenko 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 01/08/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟 

摘要:

雖然管西方對俄羅斯實施制裁,但俄羅斯政府的高額支出,仍推動其經濟增長。然而,數據顯示這種經濟並不健康,而是過熱。資助普京對烏克蘭的戰爭有壞處,同時俄羅斯公民的生活水平也會通膨,從宏觀經濟來看,這會影響經濟穩定。 

  • 克里姆林宮正在創造一種幻覺,向其公民掩蓋經濟現況
  1. 俄羅斯調整了財政政策,資助對烏克蘭的行動、維持其安全部隊並整合吞併的烏克蘭領土,卻危及到俄羅斯的經濟穩定
  2. 俄羅斯的軍費開支超過了社會開支,威脅到社會和發展需求,加劇地區間的不平等
  3. 俄羅斯過度優先考慮了國防工業,導致民用勞動力短缺,技術工人大規模移民 
  4. 雖然俄羅斯各地的生活水準都有所提高,但向死亡和受傷士兵家屬發放的款項卻無法彌補差距 ​​​​​​​
  • 儘管俄羅斯鼓勵婦女和青少年填補勞動力缺口,但這可能加劇問題 ​​​​​​​
  1. 俄羅斯公司被迫支付更高的工資來留住員工,或者從競爭對手那裡挖走員工。非軍事製造業的勞動力陷入真空 
  2. 俄羅斯徵召中產階級專業人士入伍或擔任警察,促此他們依賴於國家,卻同時也增加政府的預算挑戰 
  3. 工資上漲會推動消費增長,但也會進一步推高通貨膨脹。   ​​​​​​​
  • 俄羅斯可以保持可預測的宏觀經濟條件,資助戰爭,正常地付錢給其人民
  1. ​​​​​​​增加戰爭開支、向平民提供更多補貼貸款以及過度地依賴戰爭相關款項,都會破壞經濟穩定
  2. 西方制裁使俄羅斯免受外部衝擊,但莫斯科越來越依賴能源收入 
  3. 俄羅斯的高通脹、高利率和盧布的波動,表明其經濟健康狀況不佳
  • ​​​​​​​雖然目前俄羅斯經濟看似穩定,但戰爭破壞了俄羅斯的經濟穩定。即使戰爭結束,俄羅斯也無法在短時間內解決經濟結構性問題,特別是考慮到普京對政治控制的強烈掌握。
Summary: 
Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy is growing due to high government spending. Yet, the economic figures do not indicate economic health but a sign of overheating. Funding Putin's war against Ukraine and maintaining Russian citizens' living standards will fuel inflation and thus prevent the safeguarding of macroeconomic stability. 
  • The Kremlin is creating an economic illusion and cloaking the economic reality from its citizens: ​​​​​​​
  1. Russia adjusted its fiscal policies to fund its operations against Ukraine, maintain its security forces, and integrate annexed Ukrainian territories, endangering Russia's economic stability. 
  2. Russia's military spending is more than social spending, threatening social and developmental needs and increasing interregional inequality. 
  3. Russia disproportionately prioritized the defense industry over the civilian sector, creating labor shortages in the civilian workforce and mass emigration of skilled workers. 
  4. Although living standards have risen across Russia, disbursement for deceased and wounded soldiers to their families made up for the increase in prosperity. ​​​​​​​
  • Although Russia encouraged women and teenagers to address labor shortages, it could exacerbate the problem: ​​​​​​​
  1. Russian companies are forced to pay higher salaries to keep their workers or poach workers from their competitors. This situation creates a workforce vacuum in non-military manufacturing. 
  2. Russia drafted middle-class professionals into the military or police, making them state-dependent and increasing the government's budgetary challenges. 
  3. Higher wages drive higher consumption, but they will push inflation further.  ​​​​​​​
  • Russia can reliably finance its war and maintain payments to the population by upholding predictable macroeconomic conditions.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Yet, increasing spending on war, providing more subsidized loans to civilians, and unsustainable reliance on war-related payments undermines economic stability. 
  2. Western sanctions shielded Russia from external shocks, but Moscow increasingly depends on energy revenues.
  3. Russia's high inflation, abnormally high interest rate, and volatility of the ruble indicate its poor economic health.  
  • Although Russia's economy seems stable for now, the war eroded Russia's economic stability. Further, even if the war ends, Russia cannot address its structural problems in a short period, especially given Putin's strong grip on political control.