作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: September 11, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: China-Russia Alliance

 

摘要： 

由美國為首的聯盟不斷孤立中俄兩國，反導致這兩國國家不斷加深，同時也擴大了中俄在非西方多邊組織中的影響力。 

 

前所未有的緊密關係 

  • 自從蘇聯解體，以及中國天安門事件被西方制裁以來，中俄兩國往來的互動日益密切。 
  1. 雙方在軍事方面實現了更緊密的關係，增加了軍火銷售和頻繁的共同演習。除此之外，他們還有深刻的貿易關係。 
  2. 兩國在多邊組織中相互支持，甚至成立了非西方組織，以加強與周邊和全球南方國家的合作。
  • ​​​​​​​最近的戰略挑戰促使中俄關係更加緊密。 
  1. 隨著中國擴大其在太平洋地區的影響力，俄羅斯在2014年和2022年對烏克蘭採取挑釁行動後，西方對中俄的敵對態度加劇。
  2. 中俄也有共同的威脅感知，例如他們都對自身國土上發生顏色革命和西方軍事勢力的地區擴張的擔憂。
  • ​​​​​​​非西方多邊主義
  1. ​​​​​​​中俄不願意與任何大國結盟，卻持續深化了它們同全球南方國家的關係。對於習近平和普丁來說，贏得發展中國家的支持是對抗美國霸權之關鍵。 
  2. 在全球多邊機構中，中俄透過密切協調，成功阻止美國推動不符合其利益的議題，使不少國際機構陷入癱瘓，或將其變成影響力競爭的舞台。 
  3. 俄羅斯和中國還建立和擴大了金磚國家和上海合作組織，以重塑國際體系，增強其與戰略性重要國家的關係網絡。

中俄多邊主義的未來 

  • 想要將金磚國家和上合組織轉變為具有凝聚力和實力的組織還需要時間，而且該組織內部也存在與西方友好國家，甚至成員間也可能面臨多元國家文化的摩擦。 
  • 雖然，中國與俄羅斯有共同抗美的目標，但他們還是很忌憚彼此，不願屈之於下。但是，重大的地緣政治變化與變革，可能會加速他們之間關係趨向更加密切。

Summary：

China and Russia deepened their bilateral ties and expanded their influence in non-Western multilateral organizations due to increased isolation from the US-led alliance. 

Closer than ever 

  • China and Russia grew closer since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Western sanctions on China due to the Tiananmen protests. 
  1. Bilaterally, they improved their military ties with increased arms sales and frequent drills. They also have profound trade ties. 
  2. Both advocated for each other in multilateral organizations and even founded non-Western organizations to deepen cooperation with neighboring and global south countries. ​​​​​​​
  • Recent strategic challenges pushed China and Russia closer. ​​​​​​​
  1. The West became more hostile to China and Russia after China expanded its influence in the Pacific region and Russia engaged in belligerence toward Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. 
  2. China and Russia also share mutual threat perceptions, such as fear of color revolution on their soil and regional expansion of Western military influence. ​​​​​​​
  • The Non-Westen Multilateralism ​​​​​​​
  1. China and Russia deepened their relations with global south countries despite their reluctance to align with any great powers. For Xi and Putin, winning support among developing countries is critical to countering US hegemony.
  2. In global multilateral institutions, China and Russia coordinate to impede the US from pushing agendas that do not fit their interest, paralyzing some or turning them into an arena for influence competition. 
  3. Russia and China also set up and expanded BRICS and SCO to reshape the international system and bolster their network with strategically important countries. 
The Future of China-Russia Multilateralism 
  • It will take time to transform BRICS and SCO to be cohesive and powerful, especially with the presence of Western-friendly countries and the diversified national culture among members. 
  • Although China and Russia share a common rivalry against the US, they are wary of each other and do not want to subordinate to one another. Yet, major geopolitical changes or shocks can push them closer at hastened speed. 
 
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