作者:C. Raja Mohan
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Aug 29, 2023
摘要:
金磚國家的範圍已經逐漸擴大到阿根廷、埃及、衣索比亞、伊朗、沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋等其他新興經濟體,這將增加該集團的全球經濟實力與影響力,甚至超過G7。
金磚國家將會是西方全球秩序的挑戰者嗎?
- 中國和俄羅斯可能會將金磚國家的擴張視為一次重大勝利,透過贏得發展中國家的支持來擴大其反西方聯盟。
- 一些專家認為金磚國家展現的是另一種不結盟運動,但它只會是另一個平台,比起實際行動,更多的是空談。
- 金磚國家之所以受到關注,是因為西方對全球南方國家的無知,以及過分強調大國關係。
- 然而,金磚國家不太可能成為國際事務中一股有影響力的政治力量。
- 金磚國家的現有成員和新成員之間互相有國家利益方面的衝突,有的也存在地緣政治對抗或競爭。
- 其中也有一些成員是美國的安全夥伴,這些國家不會為了中國的承諾而放棄美國的安全保障。
- 蘇聯和中國曾試圖透過民族主義和革命主義等方式建立反西方聯盟。這的確提供了聯盟初期的動力,但後續因為深度依賴的經貿問題,中蘇仍未能推翻美國的地位。
- 金磚國家的擴張聽起來雖令人生畏,但他們可能會面臨與當年蘇聯和中國一樣的挑戰。
然而,金磚國家的擴張仍意義重大
- 金磚國家的擴張其實是提醒西方停止忽視全球南方,並重新接觸發展中國家。
- 亞洲和非洲國家內崛起的民族主義,和對西方的不滿威脅著西方的國際秩序,也讓中國和俄羅斯有機可趁。
- 西方贏得冷戰的原因在於去殖民化和與發展中國家的聯繫,但冷戰結束後他們卻忘記了這一點。西方必須從戰略沉睡中清醒,重新接觸全球南方國家。
Summary:
The expansion of BRICS to include other emerging economies such as Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will increase the group's global economic weight, surpassing the G-7 industrialized countries.
BRICS as a challenger to the Western global order?
- China and Russia may view BRICS's expansion as a major victory to enlarge its anti-Western coalition by garnering support from developing countries.
- Some experts view BRICS as a new Non-Aligned Movement, but it will only be another platform for more talks without practical actions.
- BRICS gained attention due to Western ignorance of the global South and overemphasizing great power relations.
- However, BRICS is unlikely to be an influential political force in international affairs.
- Current and new BRICS members have conflicting national interests and engage in geopolitical confrontations or competition with each other.
- Some members are close US security partners and will not abandon US security in exchange for Chinese promises.
- The Soviet Union and China had tried to create anti-Western coalitions filled with nationalists and revolutionists. Although they gained traction initially, they failed to dethrone the US due to profound economic problems.
- BRICS expansion may sound intimidating. However, it may face similar challenges as the Soviet Union and China did.
Yet, BRICS expansion is significant.
- BRICS expansion serves as a warning to the West to stop their ignorance of the global South and reengage with developing countries.
- The rise of nationalism and resentment of the West in Asia and Africa threatens the Western international order and allows China and Russia the chance to exploit.
- The West won the Cold War due to decolonization and engagement with developing countries, but they forgot it after it ended. The West must wake up from its strategic slumber and reengage with the global South.