
摘要:
雖然西方國家普遍認為相互依賴可以促進和平並,穩定與敵對國家的關係,但COVID-19和俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭揭示了過度的經濟相互依賴也具有危險。中國和俄羅斯控制著很多主要製造品,並與不結盟的發展中國家關係密切,所以西方在調整與中俄的經濟關係時更應謹慎行事。
關係破裂會帶來傷害
- 想要斷絕長期的貿易關係絕非易事,國家需要花很多時間去重新設計其經濟替代方案與修補漏洞。
- 與中國重修舊好則更具挑戰性。雖然西方聯盟已就降低風險、減少與中國的相互依存達成共識,但在處理對中關係上仍未達成共識。
- 另一方面,制裁限制了半導體的採購,有效削弱了俄羅斯的國防工業。西方對中國出口管制的措施,也阻礙了中國實現技術自給自足的野心。
西方失去優勢了嗎?
- 西方對中國和俄羅斯的經濟戰可能失效,因為其全球經濟重量和影響力已經下降。
- 中國和俄羅斯認為其與西方的戰略競爭是一種生存威脅,所以他們不會輕易屈服。
- 此外,經濟壓力的加劇可能會讓北京和俄羅斯拿出破釜沉舟的決心採取行動,因為他們覺得自己沒有什麼好失去的。
- 西方與中國之間深厚的經濟關係是很難被外力打破的。雖然中國還沒能實現金融自給自足,但已經有越來越多國家對用人民幣進行雙邊貿易持開放態度。
- 中國可能會發展自己的本土半導體供應鏈,並利用其成熟節點的製造能力作為籌碼。
Summary:
Despite popular Western thinking that interdependence fosters peace and stabilizes relations with rival countries, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine uncovered the perils of excessive economic interdependence. With China and Russia controlling major commodities and having strong ties with non-aligned developing countries, the West should be cautious when adjusting economic relations with their rivals.
Breakups Hurt
- Severing long-term trade ties will take long because countries must devise alternatives and mend loopholes.
- Reconnecting with China is more challenging because there has yet to be a consensus among the Western alliance on managing relations with China despite agreeing on de-risking and reducing interdependence with China.
- On the other hand, sanctions have eroded Russia's defense industry by restricting semiconductor procurement. China's ambition for technology self-sufficiency also hit a roadblock with the West bandwagoning for export controls on China.
Has the West lost its edge?
- The West's economic warfare against China and Russia may be ineffective because its global economic weight and influence have declined.
- China and Russia view the strategic competition with the West as an existential threat and will not submit to them easily.
- Further, intensified economic pressure may embolden Beijing and Russia as they feel they have nothing to lose.
- The West profound economic ties with China are hard to break, given its gravity. Although China has yet to succeed in greater financial self-reliance, more countries are open to settling bilateral trade in the Chinese Yuan.
- China may develop its indigenous semiconductor supply chain and use its manufacturing capacity of mature nodes as leverage.