PS: 金磚國家的復興？


作者:Ana Palacio
來源:Project Syndicate
日期:May 12, 2023

摘要:

金磚國家由快速增長的經濟體組成，他們甚至有可能在2040年超過一些大型經濟體。目前的主流看法認為，金磚國家在經濟上會成功，但因為其成員之間存在不少政治糾紛，因此其團結能力有限。 然而，金磚國家的經濟結盟使他們能夠擴大影響力，挑戰西方的全球秩序。新開發銀行（又稱金磚國家開發銀行，BRICS Development Bank）代替了世界銀行的角色，應急儲備安排幫助成員國緩解了短期的國際收支壓力。金磚國家集團藉著中國在經濟方面的貢獻，維持了長年的繁榮，不僅對全球GDP的相對貢獻超過了七國集團，成員之間的貿易也在上升。然而，金磚國家更廣闊的目標野心已經停滯好一陣子。

 

金磚國家回歸

  • 去美元化的趨勢創造了金磚國家使用共同貨幣的可能性。新貨幣可能顛覆美元的霸權地位。
  • 金磚國家重返成為討論全球各種問題的平台，一些國家表達了加入的興趣。
  • 雖然金磚國家的機構框架尚未發展完善，但發展中國家對西方主導機構的不滿推動了該集團的團結。
  • 西方主導的機構在一些政策上存在雙重標準，例如轉向綠色技術。他們不願為保護環境付出經濟成長的代價。
  • 發展中國家對西方的價值觀和價值體系持懷疑態度，認為這些僅是為了保護西方的自身利益。
  • 西方沒有能力也不願意改革全球治理，讓新興經濟體在國際問題上有更多的發言權，這加劇了新興經濟體更不滿的情緒。
  • 西方的承諾與改革一直未果，導致金磚國家不滿情緒爆發。這可能會推進世界體系改革，甚至打造新的全球秩序。
  • 挑戰：
    • 成員國之間存在利益衝突。
    • 金磚國家沒有顯示出能夠領導全球事務的能力。
    • 對西方的共同不滿。還不能支持他們建立基於規則的國際秩序。
    • 金磚國家沒有統一的全球治理敘述或價值體系。
  • 然而，西方必須注意金磚國家的崛起，並改革其機構以保護當前的國際秩序。

Summary:
BRICS is a grouping of rapidly growing economies that has the potential to overtake some of the largest economies by 2040. The world assumed BRICS to succeed economically but was disunited as some of the members had political disputes with each other. However, BRICS' economic alignment allows them to expand their influence and challenge the Western global order. The New Development Bank became an alternative to the World Bank, and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement helped members to alleviate short-term balance-of-payment pressures. BRICS thrived economically in aggregate because China has solid growth, surpassed the G7 relative contribution to the global GDP, and trade among members rose. Yet, the broader ambition of BRICS' had paused until now.
 

The Return of BRICS

  • The trend of de-dollarization raised a prospect for a shared BRICS currency. The new currency may shake the US dollar hegemony.
  • BRICS returned as a platform to discuss various global issues, and some countries expressed interest in joining it.
  • Although BRICS' institutional framework is underdeveloped, grievances by developing countries about Western-led institutions drive the group's unity.
  • The Western-led institutions practiced double standards on some policies, such as transitioning to green technologies. They are unwilling to sacrifice their economic growth for conservation efforts.
  • Developing countries are suspicious of Western norms and values that only aim to protect the West's self-interest.
  • The West's inability and unwillingness to reform global governance such that emerging economies have more say in international issues aggravate the grievances.
  • With the fruitless reform the West promised, BRICS became an alternative for disgruntled states, which may be the new global order that advances alternative worldviews and institutional systems.
  • Challenges:
    • Member states have conflicting national interests.
    • BRICS did not show the capability for global leadership.
    • Shared grievances about the West cannot support a rule-based international order.
    • BRICS does not have a coherent narrative or value for global governance.
  • Yet, the West must note the rise of BRICS and reform its institutions to protect the current international order.
 
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