FA: 中國為何沒有對俄羅斯施以援手

作者:Agathe Demarais
來源:Foreign Affairs
日期:Apr 28, 2023



  • 西方的制裁限制了俄羅斯購買汽車、飛機和機械零件的能力。俄羅斯也無法購買進口先進的半導體以補充其飛彈。
  • 西方預計俄羅斯一定有辦法找到石化能源買家,但找到尖端技術的供應商非常困難。甚至中國也不願意協助俄羅斯填補這一空白。
  • 中俄貿易近期正向增長,整體貿易價值增加了12.8%。然而,俄羅斯並非特例,其他重要的中國貿易夥伴也都是往正相關方向成長。


  • 俄罗斯正处于经济衰退中,直到2027年才会恢复到战前的水平。
  • 俄羅斯缺乏對知識產權的保護,和不友好的態度使中國公司退卻。
  • 中國企業擔心,如果他們與俄羅斯進行貿易,美國會對他們進行二級制裁。
  • 與俄羅斯一樣,由於美國的出口管制,中國也失去了進口尖端半導體的機會。因此,中國不能向俄羅斯出口尖端半導體,反而可能需要和俄羅斯競爭。


  • 雖然2022年俄羅斯對中國的出口值增長了43%,但這主要是因為商品價格上漲,而且其他商品出口國也都是一樣的趨勢。中國也沒有以折扣價格購買俄羅斯燃料。
  • 俄羅斯對中國的出口仍然很低,僅佔中國進口的4%。
  • 由於北京偏好多元化供應商,俄羅斯能源出口到中國已達到頂峰。中國能夠加工俄羅斯原油的煉油廠也很有限。
  • 習近平推遲了「西伯利亞力量」(中俄東線天然氣管道)的升級,因為北京和莫斯科同意建造另一條將庫頁島連接中國的管道。
Russian companies have been looking for greater access to the Chinese market since the West sanctioned Russia due to the illegal annexation of Crimea and intensified since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to Chinese customs data, China does not purchase that much from Russia, although Xi and Putin pledged to a "no limits" partnership.

The Effect of Western Sanctions on Russia

  • Western sanctions limited Russia's ability to procure automobiles, aircraft, and machinery parts. Russia is also unable to buy advanced semiconductors to replenish its missiles.
  • The West anticipated Russia could always find buyers for its discounted fuel, but finding suppliers for advanced technologies is challenging. Even China is reluctant to assist Russia in filling the gap.
  • China-Russia trade appeared positive, with an increase of 12.8 percent in overall trade value. However, Russia is not exceptional, as major Chinese trade partners recorded similar or better growth.

Why are Chinese companies hesitant to sell their products to Russia?

  • Russia is in a recession and will not recover to its pre-war level until 2027.
  • Russia's dispense of intellectual property protection and unwelcoming attitude towards the Chinese discouraged Chinese companies.
  • Chinese firms fear the US will target them with secondary sanctions if they trade with Russia.
  • Like Russia, China lost access to advanced semiconductors due to US export controls. Therefore, China cannot sell advanced semiconductors to Russia and may need to compete with Russia for the chips.

Debunking the "no-limit" partnership

  • Although the value of Russian exports to China increased by 43 percent in 2022, it was mainly due to a commodity price hike because other commodity exporters also recorded a rise. China also did not purchase Russian fuel at discounted prices.
  • Russian exports to China are still low, at four percent of Chinese imports.
  • Russia's energy export to China peaked because Beijing preferred diversifying its suppliers. China also had limited refiners that could process Russian crude.
  • Xi Jinping is delaying the upgrade of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline since Beijing and Moscow agreed to build another pipeline linking Sakhalin Island to China.