FP: 金磚國家貨幣可能撼動美元霸權地位 (Part 1)


作者:Joseph W. Sullivan
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Apr 24, 2023

摘要:
金磚國家正在考慮去美元化，為跨境貿易創造一種新貨幣。雖然金磚國家貨幣的實用性和實施方法令人存疑，但它有潛力推翻美元作為儲備貨幣的霸權地位。

金磚國家新貨幣對美元的威脅

  • 金磚國家的GDP總量已經超過了美國和整個G7經濟體。而新貨幣可以取代美元作為交換媒介。
    • 金磚國家可以自己為進口憑證提供資金，因為它們有貿易和國際收支盈餘。
    • 由於地理多樣性，金磚國家可以實現國際貿易的自給自足，並且只使用自己的貨幣就可以生產更多的產品
    • 由於每個金磚成員在其地區具有強大的經濟影響力，其同一地區的其他國家也會傾向於使用新貨幣開展業務。此外，國家可以透過從第三國進口和轉口貨物來繞過某些貿易限制。
  • As a reserve currency (store of value), BRICS countries have safe assets to store the new currency.作為一種儲備貨幣（價值儲存），金磚國家可以透過其安全資產來儲存新貨幣。
    • 金磚國家本身就有足夠的貿易和國際收支盈餘，不需要另外爭取外國投資。他們還可以採用各種手段，讓本國人民和公司購買以新貨幣計價的資產，或對其市場進行補貼。
    • 金磚國家打算將新貨幣與黃金和其他具有內在價值的金屬掛鉤。這將使以新貨幣計價的資產具有生息債券的特性和黃金的多樣化特性。
    • 金磚國家可以透過縮短債務期限和提高收益率來減輕違約風險。
Summary:

BRICS countries are considering de-dollarizing and creating a new currency for cross-border trade. Although the practicality and implementation of BRICSs' currency are in doubt, it can potentially dethrone US's dollar hegemony as a reserve currency.

 

The threat of BRICS's new currency to the US dollar

  • The combined GDP of BRICS outsizes the US and the entire G-7 economies. The new currency can replace the US dollar as a medium of exchange.
    • BRICS countries can fund the import bills by themselves as they run a trade and balance of payment surplus.
    • Due to geographic diversity, BRICS countries can achieve self-sufficiency in international trade and produce more products than other monetary unions using only their currency.
    • Since each BRICS member has strong economic influences in their region, other countries in the same area would be inclined to use the new currency to conduct business. Further, countries can circumvent certain trade restrictions by importing and re-exporting goods from a third country.
  • As a reserve currency (store of value), BRICS countries have safe assets to store the new currency.
    • Since BRICS run a trade and balance of payment surplus, they do not need foreign investment. They also can employ various means to get their people and companies to buy assets denominated in the new currency or subsidize their market.
    • BRICS intends to peg the new currency with gold and other metals with intrinsic value. It will make assets denominated in the new currency has the property of interest-bearing bonds and diversifying characteristics of gold.
    • BRICS can mitigate the risk of default by shortening the debt maturities and increasing the yield.
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