FP: China is Studying Russia’s Economic Playbook for Conflict


作者:Eugene Chausovsky
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Apr 14, 2023

摘要:
美中在台灣問題上的緊張關係加劇了台灣海峽兩岸發生衝突的機會。中國正在研究俄羅斯在烏克蘭的運動的軍事和經濟層面，以確保如果它決定入侵台灣，自身有足夠的籌碼來應對美國領導的制裁。雖然戰爭是可以避免的，但台灣必須了解中國在準備方面的非軍事企圖。
 

軍事方面

  • 美國主要通過提供武器、彈藥和政治經濟支持來幫助烏克蘭，幫助烏克蘭收復失地，弱化俄羅斯的作戰能力。
  • 中國會避免在台灣問題上打持久戰，因為美國可能在日本和澳洲等印太國家的支持下，重複類似於俄烏戰爭的步驟來幫助台灣。

經濟和外交方面

  • 西方試圖將俄羅斯從全球經濟中孤立出來的努力成果不大。雖然大多數歐盟成員國設法將其能源進口從俄羅斯轉移出去，但其他非西方國家，如中國和印度，增加了從俄羅斯的能源輸入，這使俄羅斯可以迴避直接的經濟風險。
  • 自從 2014 年克里米亞併吞事件以來，俄羅斯一直在增加與非西方國家或西方忽視的政府的經濟依賴和安全關係。在目前的戰爭中，這些國家不願為了西方的壓力而犧牲他們的經濟和安全利益，俄羅斯因此獲得了一些喘息空間。
  • 中國可以不採取軍事行動，而是利用經濟壓力或制約台灣的供應鏈來降低其成本。
  • 俄羅斯在經濟和外交方面的部分成功，讓中國了解到在台灣被入侵的情況下中立國家的反應。中國通過其「走出去」戰略和一帶一路政策，在這些方面取得了成功。
  • 中國還擴大其在俄羅斯和沙烏地阿拉伯的影響力，這兩個國家是台灣的主要能源供應商。北京可能會利用其籌碼向台灣施壓，特別是當台灣高度依賴能源進口時。
​​​​​​​Summary:
US-China heightened tension over Taiwan increases the chance for a conflict across the Taiwan Strait. China is studying the military and economic dimensions of Russia's campaign in Ukraine to ensure it has the leverage to counter US-led resistance against it if it decides to invade Taiwan. Although war is evitable, Taiwan must understand China's non-military attempts in preparing itself.
 

Military Aspects

  • The US mainly assists Ukraine by providing weapons, ammunition, and political and economic support, allowing Ukraine to regain its lost territory and deteriorating Russia's warfighting capability.
  • China will avoid a protracted war over Taiwan because the US may repeat similar steps to help Taiwan, with backing from Indo-Pacific countries such as Japan and Australia.

Economic and Diplomatic Aspects

  • The West's attempt to isolate Russia from the global economy is less fruitful. Although most EU members managed to divert their energy imports away from Russia, other non-Western countries, such as China and India, increased their energy input from Russia, which prevented Russia from a direct economic fallout.
  • Since the 2014 Annexation of Crimea, Russia prepared itself by increasing its economic dependence and security relations with non-Western countries or governments ignored by the West. Russia has some breathing space in the current war because these countries are unwilling to sacrifice their economic and security interests despite repeated pressure from the West.
  • Instead of a military campaign, China could use economic pressure or constrain Taiwan's supply chain to lower its costs.
  • Russia's partial success in the economic and diplomatic aspects gives China a picture of the reaction of neutral countries in case of a Taiwan invasion. China is already successful in these aspects through its "Go Out" policy and BRI.
  • China also expanded its influence in Russia and Saudi Arabia, key energy providers to Taiwan. Beijing may use its leverage to pressure Taiwan, especially when Taiwan is highly dependent on energy imports.
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