FP: 普丁做對的事情

作者/Author(s): Stephen M. Walt 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy  

日期/Date:02/15/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Strategy 

摘要:

當普丁決定入侵烏克蘭時，他錯估了許多事情，使得俄羅斯變得比以往更加弱勢，並在他的政治名聲上留下污點。但是，普丁也做對了一些事情，這讓俄烏戰爭延長至今。 
 

 

普丁做對了甚麼？ 

  • 普丁在決定入侵烏克蘭後，就已經預測到西方會進行嚴厲的制裁。然而，他也預見俄羅斯可以抵制制裁，而且制裁不會決定衝突的結果。
  • 普丁正確地判斷了俄羅斯民眾可以容忍入侵的高代價，並且目前的困難不會導致他被罷免。 
  • 普丁知道所有國家都會遵循其國家利益。因此，一些國家會不願意批評他的行動。
  • 普京了解烏克蘭的未來對俄羅斯比對西方更具有意義。因此，他的人民將支持他的行動，而西方對烏克蘭人的支持將受到限制，這就造成了利益的不對稱。 
  1. 西方定調了這場戰爭不值得他們直接干預。因此，他們選擇派遣軍事物資和援助，而不是讓軍隊直接到前線作戰。 
  2. 由於知道利益不對稱，烏克蘭及其支持者拚命將烏克蘭的命運與其他問題聯繫起來，將衝突的結果與西方的聲譽掛鉤。結果，烏克蘭人不斷要求西方提供先進的武器裝備，並得到了這些武器。 
  3. 利益的不對稱性意味著俄羅斯的核威脅效用有限。除非普丁處於失敗的邊緣，否則他不太可能訴諸核戰爭。 
  4.  西方國家不斷向烏克蘭提供軍事援助，以保護其聲譽，雖然他們給出去的幾乎沒有關鍵的物質利益。然而，他們通過投入更多的武器裝備，就等於他們在戰爭中出力。 
  5. 但是，當任何一方在衝突中開始認為，他們必須對對手造成決定性打擊來確保自己的重要利益時，戰爭就會變得更難以贏，而且可能導致衝突升級。 
 
Summary: 
When Putin decided to invade Ukraine, he misjudged many things, making Russia weaker than ever and leaving a stain on his legacy. However, there are some things that Putin got right, which prolonged the current conflict. 
 

 

What Putin got right? 

  • Putin expected harsh Western sanctions after he decided to invade Ukraine. However, he also predicted that Russia could resist the sanctions and that the sanctions would not determine the outcome of the conflict. 
  • Putin rightly judged that the Russian civilians would tolerate the high cost of the invasion and that the current hindrance would not lead to his removal. 
  • Putin knew all states would follow their national interest. Thus, some states would be reluctant to criticize his actions. 
  • Putin understood that Ukraine's future was more meaningful for Russia than the West. Therefore, his people will support his cause, and Western support for Ukrainians will be limited, creating an asymmetry of interest. 
  1. The West determined it was not worthy of directly intervening in the war. Thus, they opted to send military supplies and aid rather than troops to fight on the frontlines. 
  2. Knowing the asymmetry of interest, Ukraine and its supporters desperately link Ukraine's fate to other issues and tie the outcome of the conflict to Western reputation. As a result, Ukrainians kept demanding sophisticated weaponry from the West and got it. 
  3. The asymmetry of interest means Russia's nuclear blackmail has limited utility. Putin will unlikely resort to a nuclear war unless he is on the brink of defeat. 
  4. The West kept sending military aid to Ukraine to protect its reputation despite having little or no critical material interests. However, they became more committed to the war by committing more weaponry.  
  5. When any side in the conflict starts thinking they must strike a decisive blow on their opponent to secure their vital interest, the war will get harder to win, and conflict escalation is likely. ​​​​​​​

 

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