FP: 中國能否拔除其慣用的侵略思維

作者/Author(s): Stephen M. Walt 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/23/2023 

主題/Key Topics:  Diplomacy 




  • 習近平的修正主義和快速的軍事增長讓美國和其他國家對中國有所警惕 
  • 中國過去十年頻繁的領土爭端、在烏克蘭入侵問題上與普丁結盟,以及咄咄逼人的「戰狼」外交只會招來其他國家的憤怒和不信任 
  • 習近平的行動加強了人們對「中國威脅」的信念,給了美國及其理念相近盟友一個聯合起來反對中國的理由 
  • 最近,習近平向他得罪過的世界領導人伸出了橄欖枝,習近平在峰會上會見各國政要,並歡迎他們來北京。中國也歡迎企業回歸,並修改了指導方針,使其更加有利於企業,以重振經濟。 

  • 中國放棄侵略性的外交政策,強調更緊密的經濟關係,再加上其巨大的經濟和不斷提高的技術能力,可以成功吸引到企業。然而,中國的軍事擴張、對國際規範的漠視和修正主義仍然讓美國及其盟友感到不安。 
  • 習近平可以優先考慮國內經濟發展,利用中國廣闊的市場、不斷增長的技術能力以及對威斯特伐利亞式國家主權的承諾,阻止其他國家參與美國減緩中國增長的行動。 
  • 然而,如果中國不能回到「和平崛起」的戰略,中國可能會失敗。特別是當習近平致力於實現台灣統一的目標或中國試圖改變現狀時 
  • 總之,中國必須收起民族主義慾望,專注於重建國內經濟 
Authoritarian governments are known for being highly flexible and adaptive in policy-making. However, dictators are prone to insecurities, making them stick to failing policies or refuse to change failing policies to appear strong, and Xi Jinping exhibited these characteristics. As Xi abandons his zero COVID-19 policy, improves China’s global image, and stops the US from forming an anti-China coalition, it is questionable whether he can succeed. 

Xi’s failed foreign policy and his attempt to reverse course: 
  • Xi’s revisionist and rapid military growth alerted the US and other countries.  
  • China’s frequent territorial disputes over the past decade, alignment with Putin in the Ukrainian invasion, and aggressive “wolf-warrior” diplomacy only draw the ire and gain mistrust from other countries. 
  • Xi’s actions strengthened the belief of a “China threat” and gave the US and its like-minded allies a reason to unite against China. 
  • Recently, Xi held out an olive branch to the world leaders he offended by meeting them in summit meetings and welcoming them to Beijing. China also welcomed businesses back and revised its guidance to be more business-friendly to reinvigorate its economy. 

Will Xi succeed?