FA: 制裁時代的終結？

 

作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 12/27/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Sanctions, Economic 

摘要：

經濟制裁是美國懲罰交戰國的主要外交武器，但近期，經濟制裁有被濫用的疑慮。美國自2012年以來對制裁的過度依賴，也讓美國的對手預測到美國的可能動向，進而發展出抵制制裁的方法。

抵制制裁的方法

  • 貨幣互兌交易讓中央銀行可以跟其他銀行直接溝通。只要避免對美金的需求，也不要用美金購買武器，就可以繞開美國的制裁。 
  • 中國開發了類似於SWIFT的跨境銀行間支付系統（Cross-border Interbank Payment System,   CIPS）。 CIPS 以人民幣為基礎，但它只是剛啟用不久而已的系統，因此影響力遠不及深深植根於全球金融體系的SWIFT 。但是，如果美國對北京採取制裁行動，CIPS 是企業進入中國市場的唯一選擇。 
  • 數位貨幣，特別是數位人民幣，是不受制裁的，因為美國不能限制他國央行發行的虛擬貨幣的使用。在現在的情況下，使用數字人民幣，讓北京能夠在中國經濟放緩的情況下，仍然保有審查數位交易並挑戰美元霸權的能力。 
美國的制裁會變成一隻無牙老虎嗎？ 
  • 數位貨幣的創新使各國能夠使用不受制裁的媒介進行貿易，而這種媒介的吸引力逐漸增強且不可逆轉。 
  • 數位貨幣的創新使各國能夠使用不受制裁的媒介進行貿易，而這種媒介的吸引力逐漸增強且不可逆轉。 
  • 反制裁手段的增加將威脅到美國的外交和國家安全，因為美國可能無法追踪恐怖組織的可疑交易。 
  • 美國今後必須與其最親密的盟友合作，採取多邊制裁措施，使制裁更難被繞過，並提高制裁的有效性。 

Summary: 

Economic sanction is the US’s primary diplomatic weapon to punish belligerent states, but it is overused. US’s overreliance on sanctions, especially since 2012, has encouraged its adversaries to develop sanction resistance methods. 

Sanction resistance methods 

  • Currency swap deals allow central banks to communicate with each other directly, bypassing the need for US dollars to trade or purchase weapons, thus avoiding US sanctions. 
  • China has developed a Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) similar to SWIFT. CIPS is underutilized because it is Renminbi-based, and SWIFT is deeply rooted in the global financial network. However, if the US sanctions Beijing, CIPS is the only alternative for businesses to access the Chinese market. 
  • Digital currency, specifically digital renminbi, is sanction-proof because the US cannot restrict the use of virtual currency issued by other countries’ central banks. Digital renminbi is currently used, allowing Beijing to scrutinize digital transactions and challenge US dollar hegemony despite China’s economic slowdown. 

Will the US sanction become a toothless tiger? 
  • The innovations above give countries the capacity to trade through a sanction-proof medium and are gaining irreversible traction.
  • With the deterioration of US relations with Russia and China, Beijing and Moscow will hasten the progress in sanction-proofing efforts. 
  • The increase of sanction-resisting means will threaten US diplomacy and national security because the US may not track suspicious transactions from terror organizations.
  • The US must collaborate with its closest allies for a multilateral sanction measure in the future to make sanctions harder to bypass and increase their effectiveness. 
回上層