作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin and Joel Wuthnow 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/10/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Military 



  • 為了確保解放軍的現代化隨時在正軌上,習近平任命了在重大衝突或管理過不同戰區的新軍事領導層、台灣海峽和聯合作戰專家以及軍事技術專家。 
  • 這項任命並不意味著未來五年內台灣會發生戰爭,因為習沒有設定統一台灣的最後期限,也沒有計劃對台灣進行重大軍事行動 
  • 這些任命表明,習近平正在讓解放軍為台灣島以外的戰爭做準備,因為這可能會引發連鎖反應,將其他國家捲入與中國的戰爭 
  • 如果解放軍希望在中國周邊地區開展行動,其中央軍事委員會的學習曲線非常陡峭。其中最有經驗的張又俠已經年邁,而年輕的官員較缺乏經驗,也可能受到美國制裁。 
  • 習近平削減部隊規模並優先考慮作戰指揮和軍事創新方面的職業之後,中國人民解放軍正在努力提高其人員素質 
  • 中國努力維持其軍事和安全卻面臨經濟衰退,這也導致解放軍需要在資源更加受限的環境中作戰 
  • 中國獲得先進技術受到美國的限制,這阻礙了解放軍的現代化。解放軍必須通過與民用部門的密切合作來尋找自給自足的方法 
  • 習近平的不安全感讓他加速解放軍現代化。然而,習近平也澄清,中國不會很快尋求與鄰國發生任何重大衝突 
  • 但是,中國將通過各種強制手段更加積極地維護其國家利益 
  • 然而,中國可能會變得過於自信,並誤判解放軍應對危機的準備工作。好消息是,習明白中國離他的軍事強國夢想還很遙遠,但習的下屬必須誠實地報告中國的弱點。 

Changes in the leadership 
  • To ensure the PLA’s improvement is on track, Xi installed new military leadership experienced in significant conflicts or managed different operation theatres, experts in Taiwan Strait and joint operations, and technocrats in military technology. 
  • The appointment does not indicate an imminent war over Taiwan in the next five years since Xi has not set a deadline for Taiwan reunification, nor he has plans to conduct major military operations against Taiwan. 
  • The appointments show that Xi is preparing the PLA for war beyond Taiwan island as it may trigger a chain reaction by drawing other countries into war with China. 


Obstacles ahead

  • The top military command has a steep learning curve if the PLA wishes to conduct operations near China’s periphery, especially when the most experienced Zhang Youxia is aged, and younger acolytes are inexperienced or sanctioned by the U.S. 
  • The PLA is trying hard to revamp its personnel's quality, especially after Xi cut the size of its forces and prioritized careers in operational command and military innovation. 
  • The PLA needs to operate in a more resource-restricted environment, especially when China is facing an economic downturn while trying to maintain its military and security. 
  • China’s access to advanced technologies is restricted by the U.S., which hinders the PLA’s modernization. The PLA must look for self-sufficient methods by cooperating closely with the civilian sector. 
Playing it safe? 
  • Xi’s insecurity drives him to improve the PLA. However, Xi clarified that China would not seek any significant conflict with its neighbor soon. 
  • However, China will be more aggressive in securing its national interests through various coercive means. 
  • Yet, China may become overconfident and misjudge the preparation of the PLA for a crisis. The good news is that Xi understood China is still far away from his dream of a strong military power, but Xi’s loyalists must be honest in reporting China’s weaknesses.