FA:中國強勢行動背後的弱點(第一部分) 

作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin and Joel Wuthnow 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/10/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Military 

摘要：

雖然習近平在中共二十大期間信心滿滿地鞏固了自己的權力，但他也擔憂美國及其鄰國推動越來越不利於中國的外部環境。習近平推出新的政治局成員時，強調了解放軍現代化的重要性和解放軍必須盡快實現的目標，這等於他間接承認解放軍還沒有準備好在自家後院打一場戰爭。

受到威脅的中國

  • 習近平對 2017 年中國發展的有利外部環境感到自滿。然而，在最近的中共黨代會上，習近平認為外部環境充滿敵意，中國必須做好準備應對任何威脅，尤其是來自美國及其盟友的威脅。 
  • 北京也要處理鄰國複雜的國際和國內問題，管控領土爭端，阻止台灣分裂，控制動蕩的社會。 
提升解放軍的水準 
  • 面對不確定和不安全的時期，習近平需要一個更強大、準備充分的解放軍，並有具體的目標和時間表。 
  1. 在2027年以前，有能力能夠對台灣進行大規模行動。但這並不表示解放軍要馬上入侵。 
  2. 在2027年以前，有能力能夠對台灣進行大規模行動。但這並不表示解放軍要馬上入侵。 
  3. 到2049年，建立一支能與美國抗衡的「世界級」解放軍。 
  • 到2049年，建立一支能與美國抗衡的「世界級」解放軍。 
  • 習近平在宣布解放軍負責投射中國的安全態勢，遏制和管理危機和衝突，並在局部戰爭中取得勝利後，也表現出使用軍事手段實現其目標的意願。
  • 增加解放軍的行動可以增加解放軍缺乏的作戰經驗。 
  • 習近平還期望可以擴大解放軍，尤其是其核能力，以此作為對美國的威懾。 
  • 習近平期希望解放軍隨時準備打仗，也有能力打贏戰爭，這也是為什麼他致力於投資突破性的軍事技術以提高解放軍的戰鬥力。 

Summary:  
Although Xi Jinping consolidated his power during the 20th CCP National Congress with confidence, he was concerned by the growing hostile external environment against China, driven by the U.S. and its neighbors. Xi indirectly admitted the PLA was not ready to fight a war in its backyard, highlighted by his selection of new Politburo members, stressed the importance of PLA modernization and targets that the PLA must meet soon. 

China under threat 
  • Xi was complacent with the favorable external environment for China’s development in 2017. In the recent party congress, however, Xi perceived the external environment as hostile, and China must prepare itself against any threats, particularly from the U.S. and its allies. 
  • Beijing also needs to handle neighbors with complex international and domestic problems, manage territorial disputes, stop Taiwan from breaking away, and control its turbulent society. 
Upgrading the PLA 
  • Xi needs a stronger and well-prepared PLA when facing an uncertain and insecure period with specific targets and timelines. 
  1. By 2027, able to conduct a large-scale operation against Taiwan, but it does not indicate an imminent invasion. 
  2. By 2035, a thoroughly modern PLA which can conduct joint operations across all spheres of conflict. 
  3. By 2049, a “world-class” PLA that can rival the United States. 
  • The targets above mirror Xi’s vision of national rejuvenation by 2050, in which a first-class PLA plays a crucial role.  
  • The targets above mirror Xi’s vision of national rejuvenation by 2050, in which a first-class PLA plays a crucial role.  
  • Increased PLA operations can make increase PLA’s warfighting experience which it lacks. 
  • Xi also aimed to expand the PLA, especially its nuclear capability, as a deterrence against the U.S. 
  • Xi anticipates the PLA to be ready to fight and win wars anytime, which is why he is dedicated to investing in groundbreaking military technology to increase PLA’s combat effectiveness. 

 
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