作者/Author(s): Evan A. Feigenbaum and Adam Szubin 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/14/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Economy, Sanctions 

摘要:

防範制裁 

• 雖然中國已經看到了俄羅斯被制裁的命運，但中國仍可能會想要冒險實現其大業，特別是統一台灣。因此，中國不斷從俄羅斯的經濟痛苦中吸取教訓，以遏制西方制裁的影響。 
• 俄羅斯建立了相當規模的非美元外匯儲備，但俄羅斯將其放在符合制裁要求的國家。所以大部分儲備都被凍結了。
• 俄羅斯也有 SWIFT制裁的替代方案，但銀行比俄羅斯更擔心西方制裁。因此，銀行中斷了與俄羅斯的任何金融聯繫。 
• 中國的情況與俄羅斯其實差不多。北京減少了對美國貨幣儲備的持有量，增加了對其他貨幣的持有量，但這些貨幣被放在支持美國制裁的聯盟中。 
• 中國也有一個SWIFT（CIPS）的替代品，可以規避歐元和美元的使用。它的用戶比俄羅斯的Mir多，但與SWIFT相比仍然微不足道，很難說服發達經濟體使用其金融平台。 
• 雖然中國有比俄羅斯更好的金融工具，但經濟和地緣政治現實阻止它改變全球金融體系或取代美元和歐元成為主導的國際貨幣。 

• 結盟的重要性是中國需要注意的。美國對俄羅斯的制裁只有在其盟友的協調努力下才能發揮作用。
• 雖然中國可以利用其對合作夥伴的貿易影響力，但它背後沒有一個全力支持的聯盟關係。 
• 中國仍然很容易受到發達經濟體的全面一致制裁，但沒有人知道制裁會對中國和制裁國造成多大的傷害。 

• Despite seeing Russia's fate, China may still take the risk to achieve its ambitions, especially in reunifying Taiwan. However, China will learn from Russia's economic pain to curb the Western sanctions' effects. 
• Russia built a sizeable non-US dollar foreign currency reserve, but Russia placed it in sanction-complying countries, and thus, the reserve is frozen. 
• Russia also has an alternative to SWIFT, but banks fear Western sanctions more than Russia. Therefore the banks discontinued any financial ties with Russia. 
• China has a similar situation to Russia. Beijing has reduced its holding of US currency reserve and increased its holding of other currencies, but they were placed in the alliance which supported US sanctions. 
• China also has an alternative to SWIFT (CIPS) that circumvents the use of Euro and US dollars. It has more users than Russia's Mir, but it is minuscule compared to SWIFT, and it is hard to persuade advanced economies to use its financial platform. 
• Although China has better financial instruments than Russia, economic and geopolitical realities stop it from changing the global financial system or replacing the US dollar and Euro as the dominant international currency. 

• The importance of alliance is the main lesson China needs to heed. US sanctions on Russia will only work with coordinated efforts from its allies. 
• Although China can exploit its trade influence over its partners, it does not have a fully-supportive coalition.  
• China is still prone to comprehensive and concerted sanctions from advanced economies, but no one knows how damaging the sanctions will be to China and the sanctioning countries.