FA: 中國從俄烏戰爭中學到甚麼(第一部分)

作者/Author(s): Evan A. Feigenbaum and Adam Szubin 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/14/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Economy, Sanctions 




  • 中國批評美國的單邊制裁,認為這是對目標國家主權的非法侵犯,只有聯合國安理會才能合法地實施制裁 
  • 而中國透過使用經濟力量單方面懲罰那些反對或損害地緣政治利益的國家,主要是通過限制或阻撓外國出口等非正式方式 
  • 2020年以來,中國模仿美國的資產凍結、建立「不可靠實體清單」、域外制裁等經濟武器手段,對付公開批評政府的國家 
  • 中國還制定了反外國制裁法,允許中國政府對損害中國安全或國家利益的外國公司和個人進行報復 
  • 雖然整個經濟戰結構很新,但北京謹慎地且試圖適當地使用這種手段。在北京政府的架設下,其經濟武器相對完整的,北京已經可以按照他們認為合適的方式實施。 
  • 西方在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭幾天內就設計並實施了一連串對俄羅斯的經濟制裁。俄羅斯自此成為了二戰以來最大的被制裁國 
  • 西方對制裁的決心給北京一個啟示,那就是無論交戰方有多重要,西方都會實施嚴厲的制裁 
  • 西方迅速協調並執行制裁,過程中沒有太多分歧。嚴重依賴俄羅斯能源供應的歐洲毫不猶豫地加入了以美國為首的制裁,甚至在確保其擁有能源替代品的情況下,脫離俄羅斯能源的供應鏈。 
  • 儘管西方飽受高通脹、能源費用增加和能源短缺所苦,但他們致力於維持制裁政策以保護國際秩序 

When the Russo-Ukrainian War broke out, China tried to bolster its relations with Russia to counterbalance US's influence and circumvent the secondary effects of the Western sanctions on Russia to protect its access to the global market. Although Beijing found it challenging to maintain the balance of interests, it can learn important lessons about the strategy, tactics, and capabilities of the Western sanction pact that crushed Russia's economy in case the US and its allies decided to sanction it. Beijing gradually insulated itself against Western sanctions, but the main lesson is still the power of alliance. 

Beijing and economic warfare 

  • China criticized US's unilateral sanctions, citing them as illegal aggression on the target country's sovereignty, and only the UN Security Council can impose sanctions legitimately. 
  • However, China unilaterally punished countries that opposed or harmed geopolitical interests by using its economic power, mainly by restricting or obstructing foreign exports informally. 
  • Since 2020, China has mimicked the US's means of economic weapons, such as asset freezing, establishing an Unreliable Entities List, and extraterritorial sanctions, and used them against countries that openly criticized the government. 
  • China also established its anti-foreign sanctions law which allowed Beijing to retaliate against foreign companies and individuals that harms China's security or national interests.  
  • Although the overall structure is new, Beijing has implemented it carefully and modestly. Moreover, its economic weapons are now complete, and it can implement them as it sees fit. 

No economies are too big to punish 
  • The West devised and implemented prompt economic punishment for Russia within a few days after the invasion started, and Russia is the largest country sanctioned since the Second World War. 
  • The West's determination and economic risk-taking is a lesson to Beijing, where the West will impose tough sanctions regardless of how important the belligerent is. 
  • The West coordinated and enforced its sanctions quickly, without much disagreement. Europe, which relied on Russia heavily for fuel, did not hesitate to join US-led sanctions and even detached itself from Russian fuel while ensuring it had alternatives for energy access. 
  • Although the West suffered from high inflation, increased energy bills, and fuel shortages, they are committed to the sanction to protect the international order.