FP: 中國可以從日本那裏學到甚麼?

作者/Author(s): Howard W. French 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/26/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Economy 

摘要:

中國的人口正在下降，這讓北京在整體經濟規模上更難超越美國。一個關於亞歷山大大帝和日本經歷的故事可能會啟發中國重新思考其目的和重新確定其政策的優先順序。 

日本經驗： 

  • 1990年代之前，日本以其GDP的高速增長數字而自豪。日本甚至有幾年的人均財富超過了美國，這個情況在 1990 年代初達到頂峰，然後快速衰退。時至今日，仍有許多人認為日本永遠無法從衰退中恢復。而由於其國土面積和人口規模較小，日本不太可能在 GDP 總量上超過美國。
  • 在達到增長高峰後，日本試圖通過基礎設施建設拉高經濟增長，卻沒有提高生產力或保證可持續發展，以至於最後無可挽回地走向衰落。 
 
向日本學習： 
  • 中國目前對經濟增長的痴迷與日本的經歷相似。而且，中共還利用 GDP 增長合法化他們對國家事務的控制。
  • 中國必須面對其經濟狀況、人口問題和不斷軍事擴張的現實。 
  • 中國應該重新思考其優先事項，關注中產階級，這在很大程度上影響了習近平放棄其疫情清零政策的決定。 
  • 中國也應該放棄對財政政策的一些控制，讓私營企業免受國家干預。 
Summary: 
China is experiencing a population decline, making it more challenging for Beijing to realize the dream of surpassing the US in its overall economic size. A tale about Alexander the Great and Japan's experience may prove insightful for China to rethink its purposes and reprioritize its policies.  

Japan's experience: 
  • Before the 1990s, Japan was proud of its rapid GDP growth number. Japan did surpass the US in terms of wealth per capita for a few years, peaked in the early 1990s, then faltered. Japan never recover from the drop and is unlikely to beat the US in total GDP due to its small land mass and population size. 
  • Upon reaching peak growth, Japan tried to pump up economic growth artificially through infrastructure construction without improving productivity or assuring sustainable development to a point where nothing could be done. 
  • Japan entered a period of self-doubt on the purpose of economic growth before deciding to shift away from a materialistic measurement of status and seek healthier interests. 
Learning from Japan: 
  • China's current obsession with economic growth is similar to Japan's experience. Further, CCP also uses GDP growth to legitimize its control over state affairs.  
  • China must face the reality of its economic condition, demographic problem, and unsustainable military expansion.  
  • China should rethink its priorities and pay attention to its middle class, which greatly influence Xi's decision to abandon the zero COVID policy. 
  • China also should cede some control over fiscal policy and free private companies from state interference.  
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