↵
FA: 當貿易成為戰爭的起因 (Part 4：給全球的啟示) 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS Week Our editors' top picks from the week. Delivered on Friday.

作者/Author(s): Dale C. Copeland 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/23/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, War, IR Theory

摘要： 

當習近平或者普丁這種大國領導人對未來貿易前景看好時，他們會更加謹慎地制定外交政策，以建立長期的國力，增加中產階級的財富。普丁在這條路上失敗了，但他讓習近平意識到，如果中國入侵台灣，西方將毫不留情地制裁中國，並破壞中共在中國的合法性。

利用經濟相互依存促進和平的注意事項： 

  • 如果崛起中的大國（例如中國）對其獲取原材料和市場的途徑不滿意，它們可能會被迫採取強硬姿態，這會損害它們的國際地位。 
  • 依賴程度較低的國家（例如美國）必須避免發出壓迫或直接破壞依賴國家的信號。 
  • 貿易自由化使崛起中的依附大國趕上大國的相對國力，進而構成長期威脅。 
防範風險： 
  • 大國可以向崛起的大國施壓，要求其結束不公平的貿易行為。 
  • 如果崛起中的大國能夠維持溫和的外交政策，大國就可以保證不間斷地進入原材料和市場，這對於經濟增長和國家穩定至關重要。 
  • 大國需要與其他國家建立互利的貿易關係，讓各國毫無顧慮地實現絕對增長和國內穩定。 
教訓： 
  • 削弱新興大國未來的貿易前景，可能會導致武裝衝突。 
  • 較侵略性的外交行動也會破壞健康貿易關係所需的信心。 

第一部分：理論部分 

第二部分：俄羅斯 

第三部分：中國 


Summary: 
When leaders of dependent great powers, such as Putin and Xi, have a bright outlook about future trade, they will be careful with their diplomatic policies to build long-term national power and increase the wealth of middle-class citizens. Putin’s gambit failed, but Xi realized that the West would be relentless in sanctioning China if the Taiwan invasion happened, thereby destroying CCP’s legitimacy in PRC. 

The caveats of using economic interdependence to foster peace: 
  • If rising dependent powers (e.g., China) are unsatisfied with their access to raw materials and markets, they can be forced into an assertive posture since it harms their international position. 
  • Less dependent powers (e.g., the US) must avoid sending signals of oppressing or directly undermining dependent powers. 
  • Trade liberalization allows rising dependent power to catch up with great power’s relative national strength, posing a long-term threat. 
Preventing the risks: 
  • Great powers could pressure rising powers to end unfair trade practices. 
  • If rising powers can behave modestly in their foreign policy, great powers can provide assurance for uninterrupted access to raw materials and markets, which is essential for economic growth and national stability. 
  • Great powers need to enact mutually beneficial trade relations with other nations, allowing states absolute growth and domestic stability without any fear. 
The lessons: 
  • Impairing rising power’s future trade expectations can lead to armed conflict. 
  • Belligerent diplomatic actions can undermine the confidence required for healthy trade relations. 

Part 1: Theory 

Part 2: Russia 

Part 3: China 

回上層